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In reply to the discussion: Here Comes The Polls [View all]
 

In Too Deep

(60 posts)
18. Like I said: I see no indication the race isn't close.
Fri May 3, 2024, 06:08 PM
May 2024

I think it's close not just at the national level but also the state level.

And the polls suggest that. Polling isn't an exact science and it shouldn't be used as a prediction for the final vote tally. But polling generally does give us an idea of where a race is at and right now, it's clear this race is close.

Just as it was in 2022 and 2020.

Polling can give us an idea of the environment we're looking at and the environment does not suggest a landslide Biden victory.

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Here Comes The Polls [View all] gab13by13 May 2024 OP
Have you shared your insight with Biden's campaign manager? brooklynite May 2024 #1
Well she has to say that. I believe that it will be at least a 5% spread + Dems all the way. flying_wahini May 2024 #2
And their internal polling data has to say the same thing? brooklynite May 2024 #3
I agree, gab13by13 May 2024 #5
Hillary's loss does suggest that Johonny May 2024 #35
She just: TheProle May 2024 #16
Biden's campaign manager secretly wants Trump to win ? KS Toronado May 2024 #79
Sigh TheProle May 2024 #84
One Congressional district in NY is not indicative of a national race. TwilightZone May 2024 #4
I never said it was, gab13by13 May 2024 #6
It's a 2:1 D to R District... WarGamer May 2024 #19
That is not true. 9 points was expected. Demsrule86 May 2024 #22
link? WarGamer May 2024 #29
BTW since 2012... the average winning margin in NY26 has been around 45% WarGamer May 2024 #33
You still haven't given a link. arthritisR_US May 2024 #48
I found this on Google in about a minute. There were other articles as well. This means Demsrule86 May 2024 #53
Do you have a link to this poll that had Kennedy up only 10? In Too Deep May 2024 #7
Kennedy is not even going to make 10...he is unimportant. oops I meant RFK JR...not this Kennedy Demsrule86 May 2024 #23
Here is the article...it was expected to +9. Demsrule86 May 2024 #54
I think that's off the Cook Report. In Too Deep May 2024 #60
K&R spanone May 2024 #8
Thank you, couldn't have said it better myself. a kennedy May 2024 #9
Polls at this point simply exist to get clicks/views -misanthroptimist May 2024 #10
Polls are a snapshot of the current landscape - but no, they're not meaningless. In Too Deep May 2024 #12
Take a look at this BumRushDaShow May 2024 #13
Indeed... Wednesdays May 2024 #14
I think polls are an indicator this race is likely to be close. In Too Deep May 2024 #15
They only indicate the sentiment of the ones who were invested enough to respond to the pollsters BumRushDaShow May 2024 #17
Like I said: I see no indication the race isn't close. In Too Deep May 2024 #18
Repeating the narrative... BumRushDaShow May 2024 #20
Yes. I am pushing my narrative that I see with my own eyes. In Too Deep May 2024 #25
And the many polls that were way off are discarded by your "own eyes" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #32
I think you're confusing closeness with win/lose results Silent3 May 2024 #36
I'm talking about the NARRATIVE BumRushDaShow May 2024 #39
"Narrative" and "polls are meaningless" aren't the same thing Silent3 May 2024 #50
To address BumRushDaShow May 2024 #51
Who do you think is pushing polls "as a substitute for 'common sense'"? Silent3 May 2024 #56
Who do you think is pushing polls "as a substitute for common sense? BumRushDaShow May 2024 #57
Polls are not the same as the narratives that SOME people spin around them, and are NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE to GOTV Silent3 May 2024 #58
You cannot disconnect the two because they are inextricably linked. BumRushDaShow May 2024 #59
"You cannot disconnect the two because they are inextricably linked"? Yes, I can, using this tool called a "brain". Silent3 May 2024 #65
To respond BumRushDaShow May 2024 #70
Nope, I'm not "an employee of RCP or 538 or any other aggregator site", nor do I see the relevance of that Silent3 May 2024 #73
Nope, I'm not "an employee of RCP or 538 or any other aggregator site", nor do I see the relevance of that BumRushDaShow May 2024 #74
You apparently have your own agenda you want to rant about, not the phrase "polls are meaningless" Silent3 May 2024 #75
And once again BumRushDaShow May 2024 #83
Who here is defending misinformation or selective use of polls? Silent3 May 2024 #85
You conceded to why I am doing this BumRushDaShow May 2024 #86
"The fact that you even thought that I ever said that you did is perhaps telling?" Silent3 May 2024 #87
We are absolutely on the same side BumRushDaShow May 2024 #88
You're actually not correct here. In Too Deep May 2024 #37
Yet here is another popular aggregator that said otherwise in 2022 BumRushDaShow May 2024 #41
And yet you literally said: "The "polls" NEVER had Biden picking up GA as a state" In Too Deep May 2024 #42
The aggregators that compile months of "polls" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #47
I showed you where plenty of polls had Biden winning Georgia. In Too Deep May 2024 #61
And that was based on the "narrative" that was projected to the masses BumRushDaShow May 2024 #64
Just admit you were wrong. In Too Deep May 2024 #68
No you still don't "get it" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #72
You said polls did not show Biden winning Georgia. This was not true. In Too Deep May 2024 #89
The "narrative" that took on a life of its own claimed such based on their use or misuse of "polls" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #91
You said polls did not show Biden winning Georgia. This was not true. In Too Deep May 2024 #94
The "narratives" that were generated from "the polls" - notably in their maps - didn't show GA as "blue" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #95
Your exact words: The "polls" NEVER had Biden picking up GA as a state. In Too Deep May 2024 #97
"Polls" (plural) as reflected in the aggregate averages that had most pundits leaving GA as "tossup" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #98
Message auto-removed Name removed May 2024 #103
You ignored my entire argument about "narratives" and instead have framed it with your own fixation. BumRushDaShow May 2024 #104
Message auto-removed Name removed May 2024 #107
You cherry-pick out of ALL the posts that I did talking about "narratives" and "polls" in order to obfuscate the point BumRushDaShow May 2024 #108
Add to which, the Biden campaign says it's close brooklynite May 2024 #69
Why do you want to think that? Recent elections have been very much in our favor... Demsrule86 May 2024 #55
Because most every election since 2012 has been relatively close. In Too Deep May 2024 #62
"They only indicate the sentiment of the ones who were invested enough to respond to the pollsters" Silent3 May 2024 #34
For the partisan GOP pollsters BumRushDaShow May 2024 #38
Very nice job dragging them out. Masterful. marble falls May 2024 #109
Have had a good teacher! BumRushDaShow May 2024 #110
+++ JohnSJ May 2024 #27
This election is nothing like any other election in our lifetime which is why most of the polls are wrong. Demsrule86 May 2024 #24
100% agree. In Too Deep May 2024 #26
2022 resulted in Democrats RETAKING the PA state House after a dozen years BumRushDaShow May 2024 #40
I don't know what the polls predicted for a bunch of state house races. In Too Deep May 2024 #44
And to reiterate BumRushDaShow May 2024 #49
And I will reiterate: 2020 was close. 2022 was close. I see no reason to believe 2024 won't be close. In Too Deep May 2024 #63
So you can't define a value for the term "close". BumRushDaShow May 2024 #66
I did. 2020 and 2022. In Too Deep May 2024 #67
Naming a "year" instead of a value for the word "close" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #71
WOW, all I have to say about polls is this KS Toronado May 2024 #80
As another example BumRushDaShow May 2024 #81
You're a smart person. If you aren't clear on how those elections turned out, you can Google the results. In Too Deep May 2024 #90
You are promoting "narratives" BumRushDaShow May 2024 #92
I am promoting MY opinion. I think the election will be close. Just as it was close four years ago. In Too Deep May 2024 #93
. Fudster May 2024 #11
Just look at the primaries. lees1975 May 2024 #21
It's fascist media propaganda. onecaliberal May 2024 #28
This election will be too close, I'm afraid Bucky May 2024 #30
Trump's overperforming of the polls concerns me. In Too Deep May 2024 #45
I agree re Wisconsin and Pennsylvania shrike3 May 2024 #46
Yeah, I wonder about this so called poll stats, and they all seem to be off, by some indeterminate factor, which SWBTATTReg May 2024 #31
I hate to be a Debbie downer democrattotheend May 2024 #43
The results of polls are highly dependent.... Think. Again. May 2024 #52
The ONLY polls that matter are battleground state polls. Thats where the race will be won or lost. oldsoftie May 2024 #76
Obviously, polls and voter turnout aren't the same. sop May 2024 #77
Someone answer this question gab13by13 May 2024 #78
There are many polls. Pick the one you like and swear by it. Swear at the others. keithbvadu2 May 2024 #82
Doo doo doo doo 🎶 Silent3 May 2024 #96
Biden way up in the latest fucking polls that I goddamn saw: ABC News 49%-45% (+4) NPR/Marist 52%-47% (+5) SoFlaBro May 2024 #99
That has been the trend with polls Dorian Gray May 2024 #100
Thank you. elleng May 2024 #101
Fuck the polls. marble falls May 2024 #102
As long as msm wants a horse race, the polls Emile May 2024 #105
From May 2012: retread May 2024 #106
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