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In reply to the discussion: Here Comes The Polls [View all]
Bucky
(55,334 posts)The polls are pretty accurate at this time of year. In 2020 at this time, Biden was consistently 5-6 point ahead of Trump. This was right before Trump took a big voter approval drop of ten points (49% down to 39%) in the start of June 2020. It was a 7 point margin by election day. At the end of the election, however, Biden won by 4.5%. Trump always over performs his poll numbers, even tho he doesn't have shit for coattails for the rest of his idiot party.
It is my belief and my hope (so don't count on it coming true) that legal troubles will eventually erode away at Trump's ability to lure in uncertain Biden or undecided voters. So Biden should have the edge in a few of the "blue wall" Great Lake states. But I'd be very skeptical if he can repeat the 7 million vote difference from last time.
If you fiddle with the numbers at 270toWin and accept the Georgia is probably a lost cause this time around (sorry), then Trump has a floor of about 250 electoral votes. That means he needs also to win any two of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If he only wins Michigan or Pennsylvania, then Nevada could also put him over the top. So we really need Biden to win all three of those Rust Belt states. I mean, we should fight everywhere, but that's basically the game. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania should worry you the most.
On the plus side, Arizona seems to be trending a bluer shade of lavender lately. I hope they keep it up. I don't foresee a bright growth market for Biden-Lake voters.
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