General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Here Comes The Polls [View all]In Too Deep
(60 posts)The final polls in Georgia four years ago had Biden winning by an average of 1.2 points.
The average of polls in the 2020 runoff both had Ossoff (+1.8) and Warnock (+2.1) winning.
The polls in the 2022 Georgia runoff had Warnock winning by nearly 4 points.
But again: I am not debating whether the polls are accurate in predicting the outcome.
I am suggesting the polls prediction of a tight race is accurate - just as it was fairly accurate in 2022.
Regardless, what you said about 'the "polls" NEVER had Biden picking up GA as a state, let alone 2 Democratic Senators in a state that has a trifecta government' is factually false. Plenty of polls had all three winning - in fact, enough that according to 538, as I showed, had Biden, Ossoff and Warnock leading on average.