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In reply to the discussion: Here Comes The Polls [View all]
democrattotheend
(12,011 posts)43. I hate to be a Debbie downer
But given that polls have underestimated Trump twice, not to mention that the Republicans have a baked-in advantage with the electoral college, I will not feel optimistic about this election unless Biden has at least a five point lead in the final averages. Even that is tenuous, since Biden probably needs to win the popular vote by at least 3-4 points to win the electoral college. And that doesn't even account for how much harder Republicans have made it to vote in so many states.
Since RealClearPolitics (which I know is right-leaning in their articles, but their polling average is good and uses reputable polls) started doing polling averages in 2004, the final polling average for president has only underestimated a Democrat once, in 2012. In every other election for the past 20 years, the RCP average has either been pretty accurate or overestimated the Democrat.
Obviously it's early, but if the polls don't shift decisively towards Biden between now and November I don't have a good feeling at all.
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Well she has to say that. I believe that it will be at least a 5% spread + Dems all the way.
flying_wahini
May 2024
#2
I found this on Google in about a minute. There were other articles as well. This means
Demsrule86
May 2024
#53
Kennedy is not even going to make 10...he is unimportant. oops I meant RFK JR...not this Kennedy
Demsrule86
May 2024
#23
Polls are a snapshot of the current landscape - but no, they're not meaningless.
In Too Deep
May 2024
#12
They only indicate the sentiment of the ones who were invested enough to respond to the pollsters
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#17
Polls are not the same as the narratives that SOME people spin around them, and are NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE to GOTV
Silent3
May 2024
#58
"You cannot disconnect the two because they are inextricably linked"? Yes, I can, using this tool called a "brain".
Silent3
May 2024
#65
Nope, I'm not "an employee of RCP or 538 or any other aggregator site", nor do I see the relevance of that
Silent3
May 2024
#73
Nope, I'm not "an employee of RCP or 538 or any other aggregator site", nor do I see the relevance of that
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#74
You apparently have your own agenda you want to rant about, not the phrase "polls are meaningless"
Silent3
May 2024
#75
"The fact that you even thought that I ever said that you did is perhaps telling?"
Silent3
May 2024
#87
And yet you literally said: "The "polls" NEVER had Biden picking up GA as a state"
In Too Deep
May 2024
#42
The "narrative" that took on a life of its own claimed such based on their use or misuse of "polls"
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#91
The "narratives" that were generated from "the polls" - notably in their maps - didn't show GA as "blue"
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#95
"Polls" (plural) as reflected in the aggregate averages that had most pundits leaving GA as "tossup"
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#98
You ignored my entire argument about "narratives" and instead have framed it with your own fixation.
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#104
You cherry-pick out of ALL the posts that I did talking about "narratives" and "polls" in order to obfuscate the point
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#108
Why do you want to think that? Recent elections have been very much in our favor...
Demsrule86
May 2024
#55
"They only indicate the sentiment of the ones who were invested enough to respond to the pollsters"
Silent3
May 2024
#34
This election is nothing like any other election in our lifetime which is why most of the polls are wrong.
Demsrule86
May 2024
#24
2022 resulted in Democrats RETAKING the PA state House after a dozen years
BumRushDaShow
May 2024
#40
And I will reiterate: 2020 was close. 2022 was close. I see no reason to believe 2024 won't be close.
In Too Deep
May 2024
#63
You're a smart person. If you aren't clear on how those elections turned out, you can Google the results.
In Too Deep
May 2024
#90
I am promoting MY opinion. I think the election will be close. Just as it was close four years ago.
In Too Deep
May 2024
#93
Yeah, I wonder about this so called poll stats, and they all seem to be off, by some indeterminate factor, which
SWBTATTReg
May 2024
#31
The ONLY polls that matter are battleground state polls. Thats where the race will be won or lost.
oldsoftie
May 2024
#76
There are many polls. Pick the one you like and swear by it. Swear at the others.
keithbvadu2
May 2024
#82