Here Comes The Polls

[In Too Deep]

45. Trump's overperforming of the polls concerns me.

It's not just nationally, either.

It's in swing states.

In 2016, Trump overperformed polls in PA by 2.6 points. In Michigan, it was 3.7. In Wisconsin, it was 7.2 points.

In 2020, Trump overperformed in PA by 3 points. In Michigan, it was 5.1. In Wisconsin, it was 7.7 points.

So, they were actually off by more in 2020 than 2016.

Two things then if the polling doesn't shift between now and election day in these swing states:

1. They need to be off in favor of Biden by margins Trump saw in 2020
2. Or Biden loses these states by an even wider margin than the polls are saying right now.

Either way, it's a weird dynamic at play here. This is the first election where Trump is actually leading in the polls.

In 2016 and 2020, he rarely led in any polls in swing states or nationally (at least on average).

Thing is, Trump isn't leading in these polls because he's growing his support. He's leading in these polls because the polls are suggesting he's retained his support from 2020 and Biden has lost a significant amount of hi support to either third party candidates or those voters are undecided.

That's not as bad because I think those voters can be won over. But according to 538, Trump leads Biden on average 41.7 to 40.7.

That means there's nearly 18% of voters who either not voting for either or are undecided. That's a huge amount - maybe the largest since 1992. My guess is that most those voters are absolutely, positively not voting Trump. Maybe right now they're just absolutely possibly not voting Biden. He can win 'em back.