Here Comes The Polls

[BumRushDaShow]

59. You cannot disconnect the two because they are inextricably linked.

Polls are not the same as the narratives that SOME people spin around them, and are NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE to GOTV

There is a process where polls flow to the "pundits" and "analysts", and eventually make it into the mainstream media as someone's "interpretation" and "conclusion". As more polls get ingested into that "system", what was the embryonic stage of a "narrative", matures into a full blown "prediction", that often gets stronger and stronger over time, despite tossing out the "but there is still some uncertainty" disclaimer.

You CANNOT separate out the "narrative" from the polls that were used to create it.

I don't understand why you think the mantra "polls are meaningless!" is a necessary thing to push as an antidote to bad or misleading narratives sometimes built around polls.

Because the "narratives" bring out the concern trolls en masse and they start a chain reaction of "telling 2 friends" and "their friends tell 2 friends and so on and so on and so on" (to paraphrase the old Farrah Fawcett commercial).

You also mention slanted push polls, which no one is defending, and which are often not even the subject when the knee-jerk "polls are meaningless!" line is chanted.

Au contraire - as noted above, it results in endless column inches of -

"Democrats are worried that.... "
"Democrats are 'sounding the alarm' due to..."
"Democrats 'fear'...."

and other namby-pamby nonsense that invokes a stereotype of the "weak and hapless bleeding heart liberals".

As I noted in other posts, this leads to a misallocation of funding for candidates who are "predicted" to be in a "close race" and in reality, the were NOT. But the "narrative" produced from garbage polls that made it into the mainstream media, repeated hour after hour, forces those candidates to take action because they are hounded to do so - especially when your big media outlets keep up the pounding narrative like the "Red Tsunami" idiocy.

Do you even know what the word "meaningless" means?

It means it is irrelevant. It has no meaningful value for the general public. It might be a geek statistics freak exercise (note that many of the same pollsters test out their algorithm adjustments on sports predictions), but as time passes, the "poll humpers" put too much weight on them and never learn to use intuition, common sense, and observation of the electorate.

I.e., they refuse to see the forest for the trees so they end up with the same tired "Democrats over-performed again" crap.

I post many of the economics release news stories (CPI, PPI, UE, etc) and you can go back over the past couple years where you see my commenting about their damn "swings and misses", month after month after month - especially when it came to the monthly UE numbers. In some cases. they were so far off that it was truly laughable.

It's the same issue - statistical models that are faulty and the model-humpers who won't change.

Even if you believe (and I strongly disagree) that polling is somehow dissuading voters and distracting from GOTV activities, or that it's some terrible emotional strain people need to avoid, none of those things are the same as the polls themselves being "meaningless".

The worry-warts and concern trolls are looking for anything they can find to justify their worrying and they eventually worry themselves into staying home because things are "hopeless" based on the narratives.

Further, none of your mentions of "John Kings, Schmuck Toads, and helicopter arms Steve Kornaki" have anything to do with these people saying, "Listen to our polls and polling analysis and forget common sense!"

I guess you haven't watched them lately. You know, the "big boards" and other stuff. They have to make something as boring and droll as MATH and STATISTICS "interesting" so they have been given all kinds of audio-visual props to keep someone interested.

My mantra once more is GOTV.

Your mantra in no way, shape, or form requires ignoring polls or denouncing them as "meaningless".

For the "hand-wringers" and (and there are many), it only magnifies their tendency towards defeatism and giving up. So yes, they can safely "ignore the polls" and make sure to get to their polling location, or get their ballots in the mail, or a drop box depending on their state laws, and choice of HOW they wish to vote.