Here Comes The Polls

[BumRushDaShow]

70. To respond

"You cannot disconnect the two because they are inextricably linked"? Yes, I can, using this tool called a "brain".

It's an amazing, this brain. It allows me, if I choose, to look at just the data and stop there. It allows me to sift good polling from bad polling.

But are you an employee of RCP or 538 or any other aggregator site that feeds the newspapers and broadcast media their "takes"?

I don't know, maybe you are?

The worry-warts and concern trolls are looking for anything they can find to justify their worrying and they eventually worry themselves into staying home because things are "hopeless" based on the narratives.

Are you forgetting your audience?

This is Democratic Underground. It's a very safe bet than nearly everyone here plans to vote for Biden and all Democrats they can vote for up and down the ticket no matter what. I've never seen a single poster here (not even a probable troll) post, "Everything is so hopeless! I'm just staying home!"

I suppose you trash the "concern" threads, many that get invaded by trolls?

And maybe you haven't "seen any" because you're not on MIRT getting rid of the 1- or 2-post wonders.

Back in March after that last Super Tuesday, EarlG declared it the "unofficial official" end of "Primary Season" on DU, so *theoretically* people are supposed to support the presumptive nominee - Joe Biden. But as long as you have idjits still running as Democrats like Marianne Williamson, not EVERYONE posting on DU might vote for Biden.

If you're worried about the effects of polls on the general public, I don't even know if there's good data to suggest than polls have much to do with motivation to vote. You want to talk about "concern trolls"? These are the people who get scared when polls are up that people will think the election is "in the bag" and there's no need to go out and vote, but also scared that when polls are down that people will be too discouraged to vote.

That's the problem when a "narrative" gets generated and then takes on a life of its own.

"Red Tsunami" is the perfect example.

Hell, if that's what you really believe, fake polls creating a fake neck-and-neck horse race would be doing us a favor, creating the optimal "my vote will really count!" response.

What has ultimately happened is that many organizations HAVE taken that ball and run with it, canvassing in their areas to get people to vote so that the "narratives" don't come true. That was the point behind memes like -



I get dozens of emails and texts every day from the DNC and all kinds of affiliated organizations, including many from candidate campaigns outside of my state. These attempt to "message" around the broadcast and print media.

For the "hand-wringers" and (and there are many), it only magnifies their tendency towards defeatism and giving up.

How often have you see someone on DU say they were giving up and not going to vote? Not going to donate to anyone's campaign? Bail on GOTV activities that they otherwise would have engaged in?

That "giving up" part is almost entirely a creation in the minds of people who bizarrely can't seem to understand that many of their fellow humans gripe and worry and express fear all of the time without giving up.

Trust me, I have seen it, the vanity OPs. I think some do it to get attention. DU forums have 80 threads per page times 30 pages. It's easy to miss.

And, once again, "polls are meaningless" has nothing to do with possible real or imagined behavioral consequences of reading polls and reading narratives spun around polls. I don't care if you consider such things "inseparable" or not. Whatever problem you have with polling, "polls are meaningless" are the wrong words to express that problem accurately, no matter how wedded you might feel to that being your favorite plaintive cry of disdain for polling.

Anyone who posts on a "political forum" is light years ahead of the average "voter" (or "non-voter" ), who is NOT following politics like those on DU. THAT is the reality. DU is a tiny tiny microcosm of society.

So yes, they can safely "ignore the polls" and make sure to get to their polling location...

And they can safely pay attention to polls as well. Campaign organizations, on the other hand, most certainly cannot safely ignore polling. If polling is useful TO ANYONE, then it is inherently NOT "meaningless".

You described organizations NOT individuals and it is their JOB to gather data and act on it. But the "average person"? Not so much. Around election time, they get bombarded by hundreds of political ads on TV, radio, or their streaming services and often struggle to make a decision. So in comes those "pundits" to give them their "opinions", no matter how convoluted.

It's up to the "well informed" here on DU that we hope can give our families, coworkers, friends, and neighbors, some supplemental guidance, including making sure the innuendos and rumors get quashed, and that turnout is ratcheted up.