Here Comes The Polls

[BumRushDaShow]

83. And once again

You apparently have your own agenda you want to rant about, not the phrase "polls are meaningless"

My "agenda" is to counter misinformation and much of it comes from the selective use of "polls" to demoralize and push a negative narrative against Democrats and their candidates. It's real simple.

My primary message is GOTV. Forget the "polls". They are MEANINGLESS when voter turnout is off the charts.

Why this is ignored is simply bizarre.

For instance, you keep posting long quotes from things like that article "What I Got Wrong In 2022" which are totally off topic. The conclusion of that article is NOT "polls are meaningless".

Am guessing you didn't read it then. A simple summary - It's an example by an actual "pollster analyst" as to how "narratives" are created by a well-known aggregator and why those polls are MEANINGLESS because they, along with the assumptions and preconceived expectations of the story authors, are used to construct "predictions" that have been found to be completely wrong.

The "polls" offered no value ( "meaningless" ) when one has a preset story to promote.

MEANINGLESS

and

"POLLS ARE MEANINGLESS"


This word and that phrase were the sole reason for my entry into this discussion. Period.

And I explained why. I don't "poll hump". I have said over and over, they are part of the problem that creates "narratives" that are often false.

Not "can polls be misleading".

Not "can pollsters screw up big time sometimes".

Not "would ordinary voters be better off not looking at polls".

Not "why we should ignore polls and just GOTV!"

Not "Oh, God, what might the general population browsing DU do if these polls discourage or mislead them!"

If, in the right hands and with the right understanding, someone, anyone, can extract useful information from polling data, even if the only use is satisfying someone's curiosity about the state of the electorate, then polling is NOT meaningless. The word "meaningless" does not mean what you seem to want it to mean.

Your error is assuming that the general public are "the right hands" and are willing to go do deep dives into the data tabs and somehow tease out what is going on. If you believe that is going to happen, then there is that bridge up where DUer brooklynite lives that I can sell to you.

Some DUers did some "diving" (and included posts from others who did so as well) into the tabs from one of CNN's polls last year and made note of the large over-sample of Republicans in it (the "X" is from a Democratic strategist that works within the DNC and Biden administration) -

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218254030

Link to tweet

Chris D. Jackson
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Sep 7, 2023
@ChrisDJackson
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CNN desperately wanted an anti Biden narrative so what did they do? 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝟓𝟗.𝟕% 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐬 (!) to generate a predictably bad outcome for Biden and have now blabbed about it nonstop all day.

You…
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Readers added context
This poll followed standard polling techniques.
Oversampling is a statistical technique for obtaining more precise information about particular subgroups (in this case, Republican primary voters). The final sample is reweighted so that poll results are not biased.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/20…

CNN Poll:
documentcloud.org/documents/2394…
Context is written by people who use X, and appears when rated helpful by others. Find out more.
Chris D. Jackson
@ChrisDJackson
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Oh and look. How responsible.

If you watch CNN, please turn it off.
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1:14 PM · Sep 7, 2023

CNN commissioned a poll purportedly for one thing (GOP primary), got a set of results, then manipulated and extrapolated that data to apply to another thing (general election), which then allowed them to create a false "narrative" that became a "headline".



If you still can't understand how "polls" help to generate "narratives", with multiple examples of that now provided, then there's nothing more that one can do to help you "see it". The "public" is not reading the appendixes in polls, they are watching TV or reading the news in print or online, and are subject to someone else's conclusion about what the "polls" purportedly "mean".