Biden Is Likely Better Off Than the Polls Suggest [View all]
Fareed Zakaria suggested on CNN over the weekend that Donald Trump’s strength in the election may be even stronger than recent polls suggest because “they have tended to underestimate Donald Trump’s support, not overestimate it.”
He added: “I doubt that there are many shy Biden voters in the country.”
But what Zakaria misses is that there’s not much evidence of “shy Trump” voters either. Research from Yale and from Pew Research found little to no evidence in support of the theory.
If anything, polls actually tend to favor challengers because it’s an easy way to register general displeasure at the expense of the incumbent president.
In 2012, former President Obama led Mitt Romney by less than a point in national polls, but he ended up winning the popular vote by 4 points.
In 2020, most polls overstated challenger Joe Biden’s national lead over Trump and the election ended up closer than many expected.
The current FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump ahead of Biden nationally by just .9%.
But if the past is any indication, Biden may be better off than the polls currently suggest.
https://politicalwire.com/2024/05/13/biden-is-likely-better-off-than-the-polls-suggest/
= new reply since forum marked as read