Why do people just assume Scott Brown would win if Kerry takes a cabinet position.

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24. I don't think he's guaranteed to win, but he would have several things going for him

Obviously, a lot would ride on who his opponent is. But Brown starts with the advantage of having run two statewide campaigns -- one successful, one not. But keep in mind that he outperformed Romney in the state by a quarter of a million votes and Warren had the advantage of running in a presidential election year in which the top of the ticket was extremely popular in the state -- so much so that President Obama outperformed Elizabeth Warren by nearly a quarter of a million votes. In a special election, against an opponent without an extant statewide apparatus (and, in all likelihood, without the statewide name recognition), and without presidential coattails, Brown likely starts as the favorite. Whether he finishes on top is dependant on any number of things, most of which are unknown at this time.