Why do people just assume Scott Brown would win if Kerry takes a cabinet position.

[bluestate10]

37. Warren turned out to be a brutally strong candidate. Warren beat Brown at every turn and she

went all over the state campaigning her behind off. Warren was the exact opposite of Coakley, who gave Brown his chance on the national stage. The Senate race was tough, even with Warren being a powerhouse, she only won by 7%, Obama won Massachusetts by 23%.

Scott Brown appears to have a base vote of 1 million votes in Massachusetts, this worries me. In a special election, turnout is typically low, especially among the people that we would need to count on for votes. I would expect Brown's people to turn out, many are poorly informed elderly and a lot of the others are haters.

At this time, Massachusetts democrats have may be one person that we could put up against Brown and defeat him, the very popular two term sitting Governor, Deval Patrick. But Patrick has recently said that he wants to finish out the two remaining years of his second term and I suspect, campaign for his Lt. Gov, who I expect to win nomination to run in 2014.

If we can get though to 2014, Patrick may be willing to run if kerry does not run for re-election. 2016 or 2017 would be even better in that our side would have Patrick, Tim Murray (current Lt. Gov, probably Gov in 2017) and Joe Kennedy III (who would have done two US House terms by then), and will still only be something like 34-36 years old - enough time for him to do one or two Senate terms before running for President.