General Discussion

Fiendish Thingy

(23,478 posts)

41. It is not standard or statistically valid

Thu Jun 27, 2024, 09:16 PM

Jun 2024

Reweighting is an opaque, often proprietary tool that varies from pollster to pollster and is not scientific, but instead based on the best guesses to obtain the most valid sample.

If you don’t believe me, go to the Siena website and copy and paste the formula they use to reweight the sample; I’ll wait here.

(hint: you won’t find the formula; the most you will find is some non-transparent reference to some parameters/guidelines they use)

“partisan non-response” doesn’t seem to be as big an issue for other pollsters this year.

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NYT admits partisan non-response is source for Trump's lead in poll [View all] Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 OP

If they know it they should attempt to quantify it & statistically adjust for it. CaptainTruth Jun 2024 #1

They did. Ms. Toad Jun 2024 #9

An unscientific methodology at best Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #28

I don't think you understood what you read. Ms. Toad Jun 2024 #34

They didn't simply reduce the over responses Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #36

You are still completely ignoring the concern the potential error the NYT identified: Ms. Toad Jun 2024 #38

It is not standard or statistically valid Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #41

Transparency would be helpful - Ms. Toad Jun 2024 #42

It does indeed impact reliability. Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #43

And the lack of transparency does that? Ms. Toad Jun 2024 #44

Lack of transparency means the reliability of the methodology cannot be independently verified Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #46

I never claimed otherwise. Ms. Toad Jun 2024 #47

Weighting results CAN be scientific, when done properly. CaptainTruth Jun 2024 #51

AFAIK, there is no standardized methodology for reweighting Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #52

There's an entire field of mathematics dedicated to exactly things like this. CaptainTruth Jun 2024 #54

Any links to info on reweighting methodology? Nt Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #55

Ok, so I'm an idiot. Not the first time, won't be the last. CaptainTruth Jun 2024 #45

But in the most accurate way? "we weight the results by party registration" is not the best way. CaptainTruth Jun 2024 #50

Who knows. Ms. Toad Jun 2024 #53

I'm telling you, polls are just worthless these days. ananda Jun 2024 #2

I agree Andy823 Jun 2024 #3

The poll he bought was for "best New York businessman" or some nonsense AZSkiffyGeek Jun 2024 #29

And they (NYT) has lost all creditability now. But, I think they were already well on their way of losing it long SWBTATTReg Jun 2024 #4

They have been losing creditability DENVERPOPS Jun 2024 #7

At least they have good recipes. markodochartaigh Jun 2024 #14

Polls have been oversampling Republicans for several elections. LiberalFighter Jun 2024 #5

Yes, Democrats actually lead fulfilling lives outside of politics maxrandb Jun 2024 #6

True. Fascists and Fundamentalists have always had that advantage: they tend to be more committed peppertree Jun 2024 #8

Given How Much The M$M Is Expected to Get In Political Ads modrepub Jun 2024 #10

I never respond to polls - don't know who's behind them Xipe Totec Jun 2024 #11

Yep. Interrupt their script & INSIST on knowing who commissioned/paid for the poll Attilatheblond Jun 2024 #19

I mean the callers likely never know ITAL Jun 2024 #37

I get that, but I still ask and will not listen to anything if they don't have an answer Attilatheblond Jun 2024 #39

I understand ITAL Jun 2024 #40

Me neither. Besides, I'm on the Democratic list anyway. ananda Jun 2024 #24

Not just them but ALL of them BumRushDaShow Jun 2024 #12

Yep! calimary Jun 2024 #16

And that's why the only poll that matters is the one on the first Tuesday of November. paleotn Jun 2024 #13

VOTE. That's IT. Just VOTE!!! calimary Jun 2024 #17

exactly paleotn Jun 2024 #20

I have been saying that for a long time, Democrats do not like to answer polls, and that is why I believe trump Escurumbele Jun 2024 #15

I agree.. agingdem Jun 2024 #21

I think markodochartaigh Jun 2024 #18

Sounds reasonable to me. lpbk2713 Jun 2024 #22

I refuse to answer any polls because I got hit with Republican Push Polls trying to change my view on topics. TheBlackAdder Jun 2024 #23

Have they printed their story of how Trump won the debate yet ? twodogsbarking Jun 2024 #25

this has been a known phenomenon for years now........ Takket Jun 2024 #26

FINALLY they confess. Thanks for posting, bookmarking. emulatorloo Jun 2024 #27

The nyt is the rightwing AM radio of print. Think. Again. Jun 2024 #30

I think most blue voters instinctively knew it all was BS DoBW Jun 2024 #31

Adjust for it? Whyever would they do that? dchill Jun 2024 #32

Dupe. dchill Jun 2024 #33

The Donald will not win the popular vote. czarjak Jun 2024 #35

I think the big polling organizations are still traumatized by 2016 Algernon Moncrieff Jun 2024 #48

Or, Dems are tired of their sill push polls UpInArms Jun 2024 #49