Anyone remember Obama's first debate in 2012? [View all]
From what I remember, Obama was pretty terrible in the first debate in 2012 and everyone was freaking out. Ironically, Biden's debate with Paul Ryan a week later helped stop the bleeding, and Obama did much better in the 2nd and 3rd debate and went on to be re-elected.
Similar story in 2004 - W was terrible in the first debate against Kerry. In fact, Karl Rove even warned David Axelrod prior to the first debate about the phenomenon of incumbent presidents struggling with the first debate because they are more challenged than they have been in 4 years. Bush did somewhat better in the other debates (although he was never a strong debater) and went on to - whatever you call winning a second term when you didn't actually win the first.
The 1984 presidential debates happened when I was less than a year old, so I don't remember them obviously, but from what I learned in my poly sci classes I believe Reagan also did really poorly in the first debate and people raised questions about his age and it was the one time it looked like Mondale had a shot. We know how that election turned out.
TBH, I don't feel great about Biden's chances of winning reelection at the moment, but not because of one bad first debate, which is pretty much par for the course in recent history. And the fact that it's during the summer so long before the election helps mitigate any damage, because most people who are not already committed to a candidate are not paying attention yet. I'm way more concerned about Biden's approval rating, the inherent electoral college disadvantage, the fact that Republican legislatures have made it harder to vote in many swing states since 2020, and the overall mood of the country than I am about tonight's debate.
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