NYT admits partisan non-response is source for Trump's lead in poll

[CaptainTruth]

50. But in the most accurate way? "we weight the results by party registration" is not the best way.

Party registration does not necessarily reflect the electorate, especially when there are more registered Independents than Democrats or Republicans. The best way to do it is to model the expected electorate as accurately as possible, using all the data available, & then weight the poll data according to the expected electorate, not just party registration.

When votes are cast I guarantee that "party registration" will not equal "the electorate." Hence, inaccuracy in the poll.

I'm one of those geeks who took way too much math in college, even convinced the dean to let me take more advanced courses in things like stochastic processes & random events (statistics out the wazoo) when I didn't have the prerequisites because I loved the math, it fascinated me. Of course in my free time I was reading books on subatomic particle physics & cosmology (again, statistics out the wazoo) & they gave me the "prereqs" I needed. So, I get frustrated when I see pollsters who don't seem to grasp the basics of data sets & statistics.