About "experts" who've correctly predicted many presidential races [View all]

[Silent3]

Let's say you've been making election predictions for forty years, so, for ten different elections.

Let's say you merely use a coin toss to predict winners.

Your odds of a perfect record are 1 in 1024 doing it that way. Your odds of getting it right all but one time out of 10 are 1 in 102.4.

There are thousands of people out there in the world predicting presidential races. It's never going to be that hard to find several "experts" with perfect or near-perfect track records.

Take into account that you don't have to be that smart or have an impressive "system" for predicting elections to do better than a mere coin flip, and the potential for the illusion of expertise goes up dramatically.