About "experts" who've correctly predicted many presidential races

[Silent3]

4. I'm not misunderstanding Lichtman, nor *necessarily* saying his system is flawed

I also already addressed the "much more than flip a coin" issue.

My point is that there can't help but be people with track records as good as his, and, since that's true, you really have to take anything such experts say with a giant grain of salt.

There are certain to be, right now, other experts with track records as good as Lichtman's making the same prediction as he does for this November, AND other experts with track records as good as Lichtman's making the opposite prediction.

As every election passes, a bunch of "experts" will have their reputations harmed by a bad prediction, a bunch of maybe-not-previously-regarded-as-experts will add one more win to their record, and join the ranks of so-called experts the next time around.