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Silent3

(15,909 posts)

13. Yes, but it demonstrates you don't need to have a "system" or expertise...

Reply to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #12)

Mon Jul 1, 2024, 12:33 AM

Jul 2024

...to have a good track record. If reporters were to bother to search hard for such things, there are probably other schools that have by chance done just as well (as there are tens of thousands of schools in this country), guys sitting in bars like Cliff on Cheers, etc.

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About "experts" who've correctly predicted many presidential races [View all] Silent3 Jun 2024 OP

You misunderstand odds and Lichtman. Fiendish Thingy Jun 2024 #1

thanks elleng Jun 2024 #2

I'm not misunderstanding Lichtman, nor *necessarily* saying his system is flawed Silent3 Jun 2024 #4

And I challenged you to find Lichtman's peers with equal records Fiendish Thingy Jul 2024 #9

I just found one example when responding to another poster Silent3 Jul 2024 #11

But those aren't the same students every year, just the same school. Fiendish Thingy Jul 2024 #12

Yes, but it demonstrates you don't need to have a "system" or expertise... Silent3 Jul 2024 #13

As far "surely there must thousands of coin flippers with great prediction records"... wow, way to misunderstand... Silent3 Jul 2024 #10

It's not quite that simple Metaphorical Jun 2024 #3

Everything you've said is true... Silent3 Jun 2024 #5

We questioned our 2016 Candidate. texasfiddler Jun 2024 #6

What does that have to do with how prediction "expertise" can be illusionary? Silent3 Jun 2024 #7

I was going to discuss Lichtman texasfiddler Jun 2024 #8