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Omaha Steve

(109,284 posts)

88. Omaha has ONE swing vote

Reply to kerry-is-my-prez (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2024, 10:29 PM

Jul 2024

And it will be a toss up.

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To win, Biden must win 84.6 % of the electoral votes in battleground states. [View all] kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 OP

realclearpolling is toally RW..................... Lovie777 Jul 2024 #1

Math is now RW? iemanja Jul 2024 #51

Rso rso Jul 2024 #58

Indeed iemanja Jul 2024 #60

Rso rso Jul 2024 #62

Here from media fact check RCP....cntr right leaning. PortTack Jul 2024 #69

That's about their article content iemanja Jul 2024 #86

I addressed the weighting issue of inaccurate polls that lean right being in the mix, of course it's going to skew #s PortTack Jul 2024 #93

Trafalgar and Rasmussen rarely show up these days FBaggins Jul 2024 #96

who waiting on that red wave Nimble_Idea Jul 2024 #85

That's a separate issue iemanja Jul 2024 #87

Trashed LuvLoogie Jul 2024 #2

Same! PortTack Jul 2024 #71

To win, Biden needs to get 374% of electoral votes in battle ground states. If bullshitting, bullshit big! TheBlackAdder Jul 2024 #108

59.5% of states or 59.5% of their electoral votes? TwilightZone Jul 2024 #3

59.5% of the electoral votes. So it would be more than that. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #8

Why? Polybius Jul 2024 #4

Right now Biden has 182 electoral votes Tump has 252 kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #20

Considering that no one will "have" ANY electoral votes until after the election... Think. Again. Jul 2024 #31

You mean we have to have an election first? A minor detail JohnSJ Jul 2024 #68

Crazy, right? Next thing you know, they won't be able to just sign up random people as electors. Think. Again. Jul 2024 #79

+++. LOL JohnSJ Jul 2024 #81

If you are going to rely so heavily on polls, you think the first thing you would do is understand how they work. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #5

What is going to move him up. He's going down in all. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #9

No more debates. They are meaningless and let's be honest Trump lied his way through the entire debate. Demsrule86 Jul 2024 #13

On what planet can someone who lies constantly win a debate? rzemanfl Jul 2024 #14

No debates- This is not Biden strength kansasobama Jul 2024 #16

The debates are what sealed his win in 2020 BeyondGeography Jul 2024 #83

Biden is not the same anymore kansasobama Jul 2024 #115

He didn't lose to the lying... Melon Jul 2024 #84

Oh you are such an optimist! dpibel Jul 2024 #95

Ok, fine. So we will not wait for an election will just give Butterflylady Jul 2024 #99

You are relying strictly on the polls... that just isn't accurate! PortTack Jul 2024 #74

If we know we are grossly behind...the plan is to do nothing Melon Jul 2024 #82

Umm, most of us plan to do what we need to do to win regardless. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #110

A somewhat ironic post... because that isn't how polls work FBaggins Jul 2024 #94

Pennsylvania is sucking..... kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #104

Actually it is, and the fact you don't know better... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #111

You should try reading the rest of your source FBaggins Jul 2024 #112

So you were posting disinformation -- got it. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #113

"those are the states that are gimmes" TwilightZone Jul 2024 #6

He is winning in the gimme states but none in the swing states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #10

Here we go with the moving-bar poll shit. Again... live love laugh Jul 2024 #7

Which Democrat is getting that ? JI7 Jul 2024 #11

You do no that real clear polling is conservative right ...maybe find other sources... The GOP gives money to Demsrule86 Jul 2024 #12

That's really only relevant for their own editorial content FBaggins Jul 2024 #70

thank you for keeping us up to date on the facts ecstatic Jul 2024 #15

Do not shoot the messenger kansasobama Jul 2024 #17

We need to do our part Aepps22 Jul 2024 #43

Correction LiberaBlueDem Jul 2024 #27

ok snapshots. ecstatic Jul 2024 #41

So, Biden is basically tied with Trump in most swing states - and pretty much every swing state he needs to win? Self Esteem Jul 2024 #18

No Trump is ahead in most of the swing states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #23

Nope. Every poll is within the MOE. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #32

The only state that is within the MOE is Michigan. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #109

He is now behind in 538. That poll is not based on electoral votes. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #36

And yesterday he was leading. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #48

What about 538? former9thward Jul 2024 #38

Which flip-flops. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #47

Thanks Kerry kansasobama Jul 2024 #19

There is donor money Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #22

They need to replace Biden with Harris. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #29

Now I get it! You're a time traveler from 2 weeks ago, right? Think. Again. Jul 2024 #37

Speaking of Vice President Harris Peacetrain Jul 2024 #50

Any polls for Kamala are based on her hypothetically being the nominee. LeftInTX Jul 2024 #53

Please go read what a contested convention is, or what Prof Alan Lichtman has to say about dropping the PortTack Jul 2024 #75

Funny Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #21

Where are these polls? I've looked at ALL of them. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #24

Need to read articles Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #26

Did you mean to say that Bloomberg is the only one Xavier Breath Jul 2024 #44

Bloomberg is showing him winning some battleground states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #66

Yes. Sorry. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #89

SurveyUSA has Biden down one nationally - and only Michelle Obama doing better. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #49

Probably not but things may change when someone kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #90

Well it's not going to happen. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #92

Ok? Elessar Zappa Jul 2024 #25

Trends show that Biden will win Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #33

He has to win MI, PA and WI...not all of them! PortTack Jul 2024 #76

We trust polls again? N/T luvallpeeps Jul 2024 #28

When a poll fits their narrative, people here trust them. Xavier Breath Jul 2024 #40

Yesterday, I was told--insisted upon--that ALL polls favor Biden iemanja Jul 2024 #55

Yes..RCP is cntr right leaning ...see post #69 PortTack Jul 2024 #77

He is winning WI MI and even in PA ColinC Jul 2024 #30

FL also Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #34

That is only 44 electoral votes. I don't show him ahead in those states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #46

538 is what I go off of. He is ahead in the 226 reliably blue states as well: 270. ColinC Jul 2024 #65

Polls favor the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl - me, I say play the games. NoMoreRepugs Jul 2024 #35

+10,000 ColinC Jul 2024 #98

Get back to us when there is a truly valid concern. nt BootinUp Jul 2024 #39

Yeah, why is winning the election a valid concern iemanja Jul 2024 #56

The data at this juncture actually should look this way. I would look bad if I was beaten to a pulp. nt BootinUp Jul 2024 #57

I don't follow your point iemanja Jul 2024 #61

I am saying that the beatings will stop after he is nominated and BootinUp Jul 2024 #63

Ah, okay iemanja Jul 2024 #64

I think the polls have been corrupted by big money. Not reliable. jmbar2 Jul 2024 #42

I have to go to work and can't review this, but in general the polls are worthless now. hlthe2b Jul 2024 #45

If it wasn't Biden but someone else, wouldn't they have Emile Jul 2024 #52

RSO rso Jul 2024 #54

That would do it. I see MI, but he's been behind kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #103

Rso rso Jul 2024 #59

Ridiculous he won by winning like ALBliberal Jul 2024 #67

That was then, this is now. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #107

snapshot polls at this point are like fantasy football bigtree Jul 2024 #72

Prof Alan Lichtman agrees with you! PortTack Jul 2024 #78

Joe's got this ViewObsessed Jul 2024 #73

So we have reached the point where people love polls if they show good news and despise them if they show bad news LonePirate Jul 2024 #80

Omaha has ONE swing vote Omaha Steve Jul 2024 #88

Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate, Berkeley Haas study finds waterwatcher123 Jul 2024 #91

I doubt there's much real data in those polls. lees1975 Jul 2024 #97

If that's true then that'd be true of ANY Democratic nominee, would it not? B.See Jul 2024 #100

Yes - but another candidate may have better numbers in some states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #106

Trashed and goodbye orangecrush Jul 2024 #101

Real got bought out during the 2016 election, maybe in 2015 IbogaProject Jul 2024 #102

I used to keep a close eye on RealClearPolitics' polling during the first Obama election Emrys Jul 2024 #114

It wasnt as biased in the Obama years IbogaProject Jul 2024 #116

The bias in the Obama years was subtle to those who weren't wary about it, but still clearly noticeable. Emrys Jul 2024 #117

I want you to devise a strategy to destroy the Democratic Party. Duncan Grant Jul 2024 #105

You said it. lees1975 Jul 2024 #118