General Discussion

lees1975

(7,046 posts)

97. I doubt there's much real data in those polls.

Reply to kerry-is-my-prez (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2024, 11:40 PM

Jul 2024

The media needs them for their narrative. They don't even reflect what would be realistic shifts over the past two years, given how well Democrats did in all of these states in the mid-terms, which the polls failed to predict.

These polls also do not take into account he is within margins of errors of polls in North Carolina and Florida, and has actually surged in Florida, due to strong support from women voters.

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Emrys

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To win, Biden must win 84.6 % of the electoral votes in battleground states. [View all] kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 OP

realclearpolling is toally RW..................... Lovie777 Jul 2024 #1

Math is now RW? iemanja Jul 2024 #51

Rso rso Jul 2024 #58

Indeed iemanja Jul 2024 #60

Rso rso Jul 2024 #62

Here from media fact check RCP....cntr right leaning. PortTack Jul 2024 #69

That's about their article content iemanja Jul 2024 #86

I addressed the weighting issue of inaccurate polls that lean right being in the mix, of course it's going to skew #s PortTack Jul 2024 #93

Trafalgar and Rasmussen rarely show up these days FBaggins Jul 2024 #96

who waiting on that red wave Nimble_Idea Jul 2024 #85

That's a separate issue iemanja Jul 2024 #87

Trashed LuvLoogie Jul 2024 #2

Same! PortTack Jul 2024 #71

To win, Biden needs to get 374% of electoral votes in battle ground states. If bullshitting, bullshit big! TheBlackAdder Jul 2024 #108

59.5% of states or 59.5% of their electoral votes? TwilightZone Jul 2024 #3

59.5% of the electoral votes. So it would be more than that. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #8

Why? Polybius Jul 2024 #4

Right now Biden has 182 electoral votes Tump has 252 kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #20

Considering that no one will "have" ANY electoral votes until after the election... Think. Again. Jul 2024 #31

You mean we have to have an election first? A minor detail JohnSJ Jul 2024 #68

Crazy, right? Next thing you know, they won't be able to just sign up random people as electors. Think. Again. Jul 2024 #79

+++. LOL JohnSJ Jul 2024 #81

If you are going to rely so heavily on polls, you think the first thing you would do is understand how they work. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #5

What is going to move him up. He's going down in all. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #9

No more debates. They are meaningless and let's be honest Trump lied his way through the entire debate. Demsrule86 Jul 2024 #13

On what planet can someone who lies constantly win a debate? rzemanfl Jul 2024 #14

No debates- This is not Biden strength kansasobama Jul 2024 #16

The debates are what sealed his win in 2020 BeyondGeography Jul 2024 #83

Biden is not the same anymore kansasobama Jul 2024 #115

He didn't lose to the lying... Melon Jul 2024 #84

Oh you are such an optimist! dpibel Jul 2024 #95

Ok, fine. So we will not wait for an election will just give Butterflylady Jul 2024 #99

You are relying strictly on the polls... that just isn't accurate! PortTack Jul 2024 #74

If we know we are grossly behind...the plan is to do nothing Melon Jul 2024 #82

Umm, most of us plan to do what we need to do to win regardless. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #110

A somewhat ironic post... because that isn't how polls work FBaggins Jul 2024 #94

Pennsylvania is sucking..... kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #104

Actually it is, and the fact you don't know better... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #111

You should try reading the rest of your source FBaggins Jul 2024 #112

So you were posting disinformation -- got it. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #113

"those are the states that are gimmes" TwilightZone Jul 2024 #6

He is winning in the gimme states but none in the swing states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #10

Here we go with the moving-bar poll shit. Again... live love laugh Jul 2024 #7

Which Democrat is getting that ? JI7 Jul 2024 #11

You do no that real clear polling is conservative right ...maybe find other sources... The GOP gives money to Demsrule86 Jul 2024 #12

That's really only relevant for their own editorial content FBaggins Jul 2024 #70

thank you for keeping us up to date on the facts ecstatic Jul 2024 #15

Do not shoot the messenger kansasobama Jul 2024 #17

We need to do our part Aepps22 Jul 2024 #43

Correction LiberaBlueDem Jul 2024 #27

ok snapshots. ecstatic Jul 2024 #41

So, Biden is basically tied with Trump in most swing states - and pretty much every swing state he needs to win? Self Esteem Jul 2024 #18

No Trump is ahead in most of the swing states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #23

Nope. Every poll is within the MOE. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #32

The only state that is within the MOE is Michigan. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #109

He is now behind in 538. That poll is not based on electoral votes. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #36

And yesterday he was leading. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #48

What about 538? former9thward Jul 2024 #38

Which flip-flops. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #47

Thanks Kerry kansasobama Jul 2024 #19

There is donor money Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #22

They need to replace Biden with Harris. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #29

Now I get it! You're a time traveler from 2 weeks ago, right? Think. Again. Jul 2024 #37

Speaking of Vice President Harris Peacetrain Jul 2024 #50

Any polls for Kamala are based on her hypothetically being the nominee. LeftInTX Jul 2024 #53

Please go read what a contested convention is, or what Prof Alan Lichtman has to say about dropping the PortTack Jul 2024 #75

Funny Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #21

Where are these polls? I've looked at ALL of them. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #24

Need to read articles Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #26

Did you mean to say that Bloomberg is the only one Xavier Breath Jul 2024 #44

Bloomberg is showing him winning some battleground states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #66

Yes. Sorry. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #89

SurveyUSA has Biden down one nationally - and only Michelle Obama doing better. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #49

Probably not but things may change when someone kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #90

Well it's not going to happen. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #92

Ok? Elessar Zappa Jul 2024 #25

Trends show that Biden will win Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #33

He has to win MI, PA and WI...not all of them! PortTack Jul 2024 #76

We trust polls again? N/T luvallpeeps Jul 2024 #28

When a poll fits their narrative, people here trust them. Xavier Breath Jul 2024 #40

Yesterday, I was told--insisted upon--that ALL polls favor Biden iemanja Jul 2024 #55

Yes..RCP is cntr right leaning ...see post #69 PortTack Jul 2024 #77

He is winning WI MI and even in PA ColinC Jul 2024 #30

FL also Blue Full Moon Jul 2024 #34

That is only 44 electoral votes. I don't show him ahead in those states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #46

538 is what I go off of. He is ahead in the 226 reliably blue states as well: 270. ColinC Jul 2024 #65

Polls favor the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl - me, I say play the games. NoMoreRepugs Jul 2024 #35

+10,000 ColinC Jul 2024 #98

Get back to us when there is a truly valid concern. nt BootinUp Jul 2024 #39

Yeah, why is winning the election a valid concern iemanja Jul 2024 #56

The data at this juncture actually should look this way. I would look bad if I was beaten to a pulp. nt BootinUp Jul 2024 #57

I don't follow your point iemanja Jul 2024 #61

I am saying that the beatings will stop after he is nominated and BootinUp Jul 2024 #63

Ah, okay iemanja Jul 2024 #64

I think the polls have been corrupted by big money. Not reliable. jmbar2 Jul 2024 #42

I have to go to work and can't review this, but in general the polls are worthless now. hlthe2b Jul 2024 #45

If it wasn't Biden but someone else, wouldn't they have Emile Jul 2024 #52

RSO rso Jul 2024 #54

That would do it. I see MI, but he's been behind kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #103

Rso rso Jul 2024 #59

Ridiculous he won by winning like ALBliberal Jul 2024 #67

That was then, this is now. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #107

snapshot polls at this point are like fantasy football bigtree Jul 2024 #72

Prof Alan Lichtman agrees with you! PortTack Jul 2024 #78

Joe's got this ViewObsessed Jul 2024 #73

So we have reached the point where people love polls if they show good news and despise them if they show bad news LonePirate Jul 2024 #80

Omaha has ONE swing vote Omaha Steve Jul 2024 #88

Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate, Berkeley Haas study finds waterwatcher123 Jul 2024 #91

I doubt there's much real data in those polls. lees1975 Jul 2024 #97

If that's true then that'd be true of ANY Democratic nominee, would it not? B.See Jul 2024 #100

Yes - but another candidate may have better numbers in some states. kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #106

Trashed and goodbye orangecrush Jul 2024 #101

Real got bought out during the 2016 election, maybe in 2015 IbogaProject Jul 2024 #102

I used to keep a close eye on RealClearPolitics' polling during the first Obama election Emrys Jul 2024 #114

It wasnt as biased in the Obama years IbogaProject Jul 2024 #116

The bias in the Obama years was subtle to those who weren't wary about it, but still clearly noticeable. Emrys Jul 2024 #117

I want you to devise a strategy to destroy the Democratic Party. Duncan Grant Jul 2024 #105

You said it. lees1975 Jul 2024 #118