General Discussion

Polybius

(21,902 posts)

86. But if the MOE is +/- 4 points, that could be worse too

Sun Jul 21, 2024, 12:49 PM

Jul 2024

It could mean Trump is ahead by as little as 3 (you classify that as a statistical tie?) or as much as 11. Usually, the truth is in the middle.

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Detroit Free Press Poll: Trump +7 in Michigan [View all] LonePirate Jul 2024 OP

"Bernie Porn"? Ocelot II Jul 2024 #1

Beat me to it. n/t rzemanfl Jul 2024 #2

*snerk* Hugin Jul 2024 #11

I want that as my DU name. Renew Deal Jul 2024 #78

Bernie Porn: Celerity Jul 2024 #79

LOL! Should have stuck with Bjorn, he looks kind of bear-like. Ocelot II Jul 2024 #81

indeed he does Celerity Jul 2024 #85

More meaningless polls MONTHS away. And what do you expect in a snapshot when Biden has been ATTACKED over and over? Deek1935 Jul 2024 #3

On what date do polls become meaningful for you? LonePirate Jul 2024 #4

Election Day Keepthesoulalive Jul 2024 #7

I'd like to know that too. jimfields33 Jul 2024 #9

Bingo! Think. Again. Jul 2024 #16

Sure as shit not in JULY and not after weeks of relentless media attacks and circular firing squading. Deek1935 Jul 2024 #13

Well said PatSeg Jul 2024 #59

The day after election day of course. Think. Again. Jul 2024 #15

There are going to be a lot of very shocked DUers on Wednesday, November 6 if that is the case. LonePirate Jul 2024 #18

What shock would there be? Think. Again. Jul 2024 #25

The shock comes from trusting polls if we have learned anything from the past ColinC Jul 2024 #32

Do you know of any general election polls that were more than 7 points off in our favor? LonePirate Jul 2024 #58

August 6,2016 detroit free press showed Clinton ahead by 11 and in October by 12 ColinC Jul 2024 #61

The poll was indeed off but it was not off in our favor. If the new poll is off Repubs like that one, we lose by 20. LonePirate Jul 2024 #64

Did you read the rest of my post? Whitmer is a prime example ColinC Jul 2024 #65

If the poll is off and Trump is really +20 The Revolution Jul 2024 #91

Oooh, bet you can't wait n/t kcr Jul 2024 #88

There is no way Trump is ahead in Detroit kcr Jul 2024 #89

Election Day. On what did the red wave polls predicted come to fruition? onecaliberal Jul 2024 #19

Read what Alan Lichtman has to say about polls, if or when they are helpful. PortTack Jul 2024 #56

There are legitimate election analysts claiming Lichtman's analysis is no different than astrology. LonePirate Jul 2024 #60

Post the proof asm128 Jul 2024 #66

If astrology is as accurate as Lichtman's predictions, perhaps I should get into astrology ColinC Jul 2024 #67

Respondents are responding to the polls Turbineguy Jul 2024 #83

If these numbers don't make you worried, you are not living in the real world. tman Jul 2024 #5

Worried, OK; panicked, no. Ocelot II Jul 2024 #6

Yeah, I won't running screaming into the hills beacuse of this Xavier Breath Jul 2024 #27

Tell it to President Hillary Clinton. What kind of snapshot would you expect now after what has been happening? Deek1935 Jul 2024 #14

Tell it to France. onecaliberal Jul 2024 #21

Mais oui! True Dough Jul 2024 #29

No it didn't. former9thward Jul 2024 #87

Allow me to rephrase True Dough Jul 2024 #92

Why? I'm not in the for-profit media business... Think. Again. Jul 2024 #17

I don't think most people are "not worried". JI7 Jul 2024 #20

600 voters or "likely voters?" Alice B. Jul 2024 #8

Likely voters unfortunately FBaggins Jul 2024 #23

Project 2025 Cattledog Jul 2024 #10

More media hype, "growing pressure on Biden to step aside" Walleye Jul 2024 #12

Ok Dems can they stop now trying to push out the President FloridaBlues Jul 2024 #22

Why this poll is more likely to be an attempt to push Biden out FBaggins Jul 2024 #24

No bueno Prairie Gates Jul 2024 #26

Detroit Free Press: Hillary up 11 in Michigan (8/5/2016) ColinC Jul 2024 #28

And it was 12 points in mid October FBaggins Jul 2024 #34

The polls taken right before election showed Trump within the margin of error Kaleva Jul 2024 #53

Alas none of the polls being discussed are "right before the election" ColinC Jul 2024 #55

Currently in Red Antrim County, northern lower Michigan Freethinker65 Jul 2024 #30

I guess having to fight on two fronts, LisaL Jul 2024 #31

The margin of error is +/- four points, so this poll shows a statistical tie. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #33

A. Not a good poll B. As you said C. 9% undecided underpants Jul 2024 #35

Again... that isn't a statistical tie FBaggins Jul 2024 #37

It is, you're wrong, and I will copy and paste my correcting you when you spread this misinformation... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #38

Same response - you're misreading your source FBaggins Jul 2024 #39

You're ridiculously wrong and people can read and see for themselves. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #40

It would be simple enough for you to prove it FBaggins Jul 2024 #43

I did. It's simple math. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #44

Someone must have hacked your account FBaggins Jul 2024 #46

That's not how it works... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #48

That's exactly how it works. See your own source FBaggins Jul 2024 #51

It is NOT how it works W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #96

Sorry. That's entirely wrong FBaggins Jul 2024 #99

But if the MOE is +/- 4 points, that could be worse too Polybius Jul 2024 #86

But as long as both candidates are within the margin of error, it means it's a statistical tie... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #94

Sadly, this is now moot Polybius Jul 2024 #95

No, it is not. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #97

Yeah Polybius Jul 2024 #98

They polled 600 people. bullimiami Jul 2024 #36

That's how polling has always worked. realtruthflavor Jul 2024 #49

Once upon a time they weren't polling over the internet or whatever. bullimiami Jul 2024 #62

A month ago this same poll was Biden -4 BeyondGeography Jul 2024 #41

One poll shows Trump in the lead. lees1975 Jul 2024 #42

It would be great if it were just one poll. BannonsLiver Jul 2024 #73

Trump +7 at +/-4 SomedayKindaLove Jul 2024 #45

They couldn't wait for post-convention polling FBaggins Jul 2024 #47

EPIC MRA is the gold standard of Michigan polls nt realtruthflavor Jul 2024 #50

So Hillary won Michigan by 12 points in 2016? FBaggins Jul 2024 #52

EPIC-MRA didn't have Clinton up by 12 in their final 2016 poll, it was +4 & it was taken 5 to 7 days before the election Celerity Jul 2024 #84

I stand corrected - I was looking at an October poll FBaggins Jul 2024 #93

They made up the +-4 using their faulty methodology. bullimiami Jul 2024 #63

Alarm bells are ringing aloud. Some people can't hear them and don't want to listen. Doodley Jul 2024 #54

I call it ostriching. What alarm bells? Nothing but clear seas ahead from my view on the HMS Titanic. LonePirate Jul 2024 #70

Sounds like Freeper Poll Emile Jul 2024 #57

I have a hard time believing this one Buckeyeblue Jul 2024 #68

Nothing to see here! BannonsLiver Jul 2024 #69

That matches the blue labs number. Renew Deal Jul 2024 #71

In the case of the last week BannonsLiver Jul 2024 #75

You sure like posting these types of polls, dontcha obamanut2012 Jul 2024 #72

Are there better ones? Renew Deal Jul 2024 #76

I suspect the OP wants to use this as justification to replace Biden, but the fact is JohnSJ Jul 2024 #80

First of all this pollster predicted Hillary winning by 12 points, and reading the article JohnSJ Jul 2024 #74

Fake Vance hasn't been fully exposed. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2024 #77

It's not that we're not worried. It's that our choices are not great. MaryMagdaline Jul 2024 #82

This! X1000 moonscape Jul 2024 #90