General Discussion

W_HAMILTON

(10,333 posts)

96. It is NOT how it works

Sun Jul 21, 2024, 03:54 PM

Jul 2024

It means that the ACTUAL election would be within the polling results, factoring in margin of error, 95% of the time.

Running the poll 100 times doesn't change the fact that there is one true actual outcome and the poll is meant to capture that outcome within its range of results, factoring in the margin of error.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

99 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Detroit Free Press Poll: Trump +7 in Michigan [View all] LonePirate Jul 2024 OP

"Bernie Porn"? Ocelot II Jul 2024 #1

Beat me to it. n/t rzemanfl Jul 2024 #2

*snerk* Hugin Jul 2024 #11

I want that as my DU name. Renew Deal Jul 2024 #78

Bernie Porn: Celerity Jul 2024 #79

LOL! Should have stuck with Bjorn, he looks kind of bear-like. Ocelot II Jul 2024 #81

indeed he does Celerity Jul 2024 #85

More meaningless polls MONTHS away. And what do you expect in a snapshot when Biden has been ATTACKED over and over? Deek1935 Jul 2024 #3

On what date do polls become meaningful for you? LonePirate Jul 2024 #4

Election Day Keepthesoulalive Jul 2024 #7

I'd like to know that too. jimfields33 Jul 2024 #9

Bingo! Think. Again. Jul 2024 #16

Sure as shit not in JULY and not after weeks of relentless media attacks and circular firing squading. Deek1935 Jul 2024 #13

Well said PatSeg Jul 2024 #59

The day after election day of course. Think. Again. Jul 2024 #15

There are going to be a lot of very shocked DUers on Wednesday, November 6 if that is the case. LonePirate Jul 2024 #18

What shock would there be? Think. Again. Jul 2024 #25

The shock comes from trusting polls if we have learned anything from the past ColinC Jul 2024 #32

Do you know of any general election polls that were more than 7 points off in our favor? LonePirate Jul 2024 #58

August 6,2016 detroit free press showed Clinton ahead by 11 and in October by 12 ColinC Jul 2024 #61

The poll was indeed off but it was not off in our favor. If the new poll is off Repubs like that one, we lose by 20. LonePirate Jul 2024 #64

Did you read the rest of my post? Whitmer is a prime example ColinC Jul 2024 #65

If the poll is off and Trump is really +20 The Revolution Jul 2024 #91

Oooh, bet you can't wait n/t kcr Jul 2024 #88

There is no way Trump is ahead in Detroit kcr Jul 2024 #89

Election Day. On what did the red wave polls predicted come to fruition? onecaliberal Jul 2024 #19

Read what Alan Lichtman has to say about polls, if or when they are helpful. PortTack Jul 2024 #56

There are legitimate election analysts claiming Lichtman's analysis is no different than astrology. LonePirate Jul 2024 #60

Post the proof asm128 Jul 2024 #66

If astrology is as accurate as Lichtman's predictions, perhaps I should get into astrology ColinC Jul 2024 #67

Respondents are responding to the polls Turbineguy Jul 2024 #83

If these numbers don't make you worried, you are not living in the real world. tman Jul 2024 #5

Worried, OK; panicked, no. Ocelot II Jul 2024 #6

Yeah, I won't running screaming into the hills beacuse of this Xavier Breath Jul 2024 #27

Tell it to President Hillary Clinton. What kind of snapshot would you expect now after what has been happening? Deek1935 Jul 2024 #14

Tell it to France. onecaliberal Jul 2024 #21

Mais oui! True Dough Jul 2024 #29

No it didn't. former9thward Jul 2024 #87

Allow me to rephrase True Dough Jul 2024 #92

Why? I'm not in the for-profit media business... Think. Again. Jul 2024 #17

I don't think most people are "not worried". JI7 Jul 2024 #20

600 voters or "likely voters?" Alice B. Jul 2024 #8

Likely voters unfortunately FBaggins Jul 2024 #23

Project 2025 Cattledog Jul 2024 #10

More media hype, "growing pressure on Biden to step aside" Walleye Jul 2024 #12

Ok Dems can they stop now trying to push out the President FloridaBlues Jul 2024 #22

Why this poll is more likely to be an attempt to push Biden out FBaggins Jul 2024 #24

No bueno Prairie Gates Jul 2024 #26

Detroit Free Press: Hillary up 11 in Michigan (8/5/2016) ColinC Jul 2024 #28

And it was 12 points in mid October FBaggins Jul 2024 #34

The polls taken right before election showed Trump within the margin of error Kaleva Jul 2024 #53

Alas none of the polls being discussed are "right before the election" ColinC Jul 2024 #55

Currently in Red Antrim County, northern lower Michigan Freethinker65 Jul 2024 #30

I guess having to fight on two fronts, LisaL Jul 2024 #31

The margin of error is +/- four points, so this poll shows a statistical tie. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #33

A. Not a good poll B. As you said C. 9% undecided underpants Jul 2024 #35

Again... that isn't a statistical tie FBaggins Jul 2024 #37

It is, you're wrong, and I will copy and paste my correcting you when you spread this misinformation... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #38

Same response - you're misreading your source FBaggins Jul 2024 #39

You're ridiculously wrong and people can read and see for themselves. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #40

It would be simple enough for you to prove it FBaggins Jul 2024 #43

I did. It's simple math. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #44

Someone must have hacked your account FBaggins Jul 2024 #46

That's not how it works... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #48

That's exactly how it works. See your own source FBaggins Jul 2024 #51

It is NOT how it works W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #96

Sorry. That's entirely wrong FBaggins Jul 2024 #99

But if the MOE is +/- 4 points, that could be worse too Polybius Jul 2024 #86

But as long as both candidates are within the margin of error, it means it's a statistical tie... W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #94

Sadly, this is now moot Polybius Jul 2024 #95

No, it is not. W_HAMILTON Jul 2024 #97

Yeah Polybius Jul 2024 #98

They polled 600 people. bullimiami Jul 2024 #36

That's how polling has always worked. realtruthflavor Jul 2024 #49

Once upon a time they weren't polling over the internet or whatever. bullimiami Jul 2024 #62

A month ago this same poll was Biden -4 BeyondGeography Jul 2024 #41

One poll shows Trump in the lead. lees1975 Jul 2024 #42

It would be great if it were just one poll. BannonsLiver Jul 2024 #73

Trump +7 at +/-4 SomedayKindaLove Jul 2024 #45

They couldn't wait for post-convention polling FBaggins Jul 2024 #47

EPIC MRA is the gold standard of Michigan polls nt realtruthflavor Jul 2024 #50

So Hillary won Michigan by 12 points in 2016? FBaggins Jul 2024 #52

EPIC-MRA didn't have Clinton up by 12 in their final 2016 poll, it was +4 & it was taken 5 to 7 days before the election Celerity Jul 2024 #84

I stand corrected - I was looking at an October poll FBaggins Jul 2024 #93

They made up the +-4 using their faulty methodology. bullimiami Jul 2024 #63

Alarm bells are ringing aloud. Some people can't hear them and don't want to listen. Doodley Jul 2024 #54

I call it ostriching. What alarm bells? Nothing but clear seas ahead from my view on the HMS Titanic. LonePirate Jul 2024 #70

Sounds like Freeper Poll Emile Jul 2024 #57

I have a hard time believing this one Buckeyeblue Jul 2024 #68

Nothing to see here! BannonsLiver Jul 2024 #69

That matches the blue labs number. Renew Deal Jul 2024 #71

In the case of the last week BannonsLiver Jul 2024 #75

You sure like posting these types of polls, dontcha obamanut2012 Jul 2024 #72

Are there better ones? Renew Deal Jul 2024 #76

I suspect the OP wants to use this as justification to replace Biden, but the fact is JohnSJ Jul 2024 #80

First of all this pollster predicted Hillary winning by 12 points, and reading the article JohnSJ Jul 2024 #74

Fake Vance hasn't been fully exposed. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2024 #77

It's not that we're not worried. It's that our choices are not great. MaryMagdaline Jul 2024 #82

This! X1000 moonscape Jul 2024 #90