Allan Lichtman, creator of 13 Keys to White House, makes election prediction update

[Zoomie1986]

53. A breakdown, as per the USA Today article linked above

Harris

Key 2 - No primary contest. LOL
Key 4 - No third party. Candidates, yes, but 3rd party organizations, none to take seriously.
Key 5 - Strong short-term economy. Is it perfect or strong for everyone? No. But it is a strong economy.
Key 6 - Strong long-term economy. See #5.
Key 7 - Major policy change. Democrats offer something new, the other side? LOL.
Key 8 - No social unrest. The Gaza protests simply aren't close to the scale of the 2020 BLM protests. BLM enjoyed broad support across demographic lines of race, class, gender and so on, and their events were more common and in far broader swaths of the country. Gaza? Not so much.
Key 9 - No scandal. The Rs will try to change this one, but I have a feeling scandal-mongering doesn't work for Team Psychopath as well as it works against them.
Key 13 - Uncharismatic challenger. The majority of people can't stand her opponent. That will not change.

Not in her favor:

Key 1 - Midterm gains. Dems lost ground in the House. She can't change this, although I could argue a case for giving it to her provisionally for how well the Democrats have done in special elections and ballot initiatives.
Key 3 - Incumbent seeking re-election. As long as she's VP, she's not the incumbent. We don't want this to change, really because it would mean Biden dying or becoming incapacitated enough to remove him from office. That would suck. He deserves a full term.
Key 10 - No foreign/military failure. Gaza & Ukraine still unresolved, so not winning...or losing. This one probably won't change.
Key 11 - Major foreign/military success. See #10.
Key 12 - Charismatic incumbent. If she demonstrates appeal across party lines, she gets this one. It's still too early to determine what appeal she will have across the board.

I think she goes into election day with 9 of these. That's nothing to sneeze at.