GLOBAL EXTINCTION WITHIN ONE HUMAN LIFETIME?

[NoOneMan]

131. We wont even have temperatures that support photosynthesis in the US breadbasket

A projection of die-off/displacement based on IPCC of the hottest regions puts the number at potentially 3 billion by 2100. Now, that could be incredibly optimistic if the IPCC keeps moving back the warming goalposts (as is expected).

I can grant you that this scenario is at least somewhat different; we could perhaps see some better growing conditions in Canada and Russia as a tradeoff

The further north you travel, the worse the soil can get (which isn't good because we are depleting the potash reserves already). I have no doubt the Canadian government would whore out crown land to industrialized farm corporations (we see what they are doing to the oil sands) but the yields may be less than spectacular the further north they grow. Besides, average temperature and regional temperature are two different things. We don't know that a warming world will create optimal growing conditions in Saskatchewan for example, or that Saskatchewan's winters wouldn't still be harsh or even harsher. Remember, winters in California aren't too bad, but they get an hour more of daylight--at least--than many Canadian regions (and vice-versa in the summer). But this could really diminish the ability to produce winter crops if they are all moved up north.

BTW, did you know a lot of good farmland in Sask. is already farmed? Moving our best farmland in the breadbasket to what is left in Canada might not be so pleasant. Just saying. Check out picture below I found on NYT (notice difference in land size):


Ok, so what land will be viable for staple crops in 2100 to feed 8-11 billion people?


And thats another interesting feedback loop....not only would a ton of land lose its ability to sequester carbon from the equatorial regions and out, but any new farmland development would require a major release of carbon and less carbon sequestering potential. Mankind would, in this instance, be creating their own feedback based on the changing climate. The carbon released from developing that amount of land would be insane (decades of fossil fuel burning probably to replace the breadbasket's acres). Some of that land is occupied by massive, ancient forests, like the tar sand land was

I would be interested in seeing this fully modeled with all the other data (the carbon release from moving farmlands and developing new logistical routes for food transport).