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VMA131Marine

(5,292 posts)

5. Also, while I would argue polling averages are more accurate

Reply to RidinWithHarris (Original post)

Thu Aug 8, 2024, 03:32 PM

Aug 2024

they are lagging indicators when there are major changes in the race as we are seeing now. The current polling averages still contain results from just after President Biden withdrew and things have clearly moved a lot in VP Harris’s favour since then. There will be more movement during the convention.

IMO this is what is freaking Trump’s team out. They know Trump is going to be down substantially in the polling average after things settle down and they will have very little time to change the momentum before things set in concrete.

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Even if you don't trust polling, you should at least trust polling TRENDS [View all] RidinWithHarris Aug 2024 OP

I believe the enthusiasm, and I think the shortened campaign season is really appealing to voters Walleye Aug 2024 #1

Note: averages are not the same as trends Fiendish Thingy Aug 2024 #2

The polling average is trending, and individual polls themselves are also trending, in Harris's favor RidinWithHarris Aug 2024 #4

Always ColinC Aug 2024 #3

Also, while I would argue polling averages are more accurate VMA131Marine Aug 2024 #5

There's no fixed window of time that you have to use for polling averages RidinWithHarris Aug 2024 #10

That's why I say they are a lagging indicator. VMA131Marine Aug 2024 #18

THANK YOU !!! Rubyshoo Aug 2024 #6

LFG RedSpartan Aug 2024 #7

Trends are only valid if they dont change their turnout models getagrip_already Aug 2024 #8

It's highly unlikely that the strong positive trend we're seeing is a whole bunch of separate pollsters... RidinWithHarris Aug 2024 #14

Im not saying that.. getagrip_already Aug 2024 #16

People tend to trust polls that reinforce their internal biases and reject those that go against them... WarGamer Aug 2024 #9

I personally don't do that, which is why I was getting pretty damned scared... RidinWithHarris Aug 2024 #11

Basically polling now is the same as it was pre-debate WarGamer Aug 2024 #12

The same? Where do you see that? RidinWithHarris Aug 2024 #15

I'm saying that before the debate, it was a 50/50 race with some polls showing Biden ahead. WarGamer Aug 2024 #17

Fair enough RidinWithHarris Aug 2024 #19

Eh Cosmocat Aug 2024 #20

yes, i only look at trends, everything else is just noise. nt ImNotGod Aug 2024 #13