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In reply to the discussion: We have 2 years.. Which representatives are the weakest 34 republicans [View all]muriel_volestrangler
(106,161 posts)(which is still not final - the 'X' in a column at the right indicates if a result is complete), the 34 Republicans with the smallest percentage margin over a Democrat:
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State CD# PVI Winner Party Dem Vte GOP Vte Other V Dem % GOP % Other % Dem Mar Final? Prez W Dem % over GOP
Indiana 9 R+9 Todd Young R* 132,848 165,332 - 44.55% 55.45% 0.00% -32,484 x Romney -10.89%
Montana AL R+7 Steve Daines R 204,939 255,468 19,333 42.72% 53.25% 4.03% -50,529 x Romney -10.53%
Michigan 7 R+3 Tim Walberg R* 136,849 169,668 11,552 43.02% 53.34% 3.63% -32,819 x Romney -10.32%
Indiana 8 R+8 Larry Bucshon R* 122,325 151,533 10,134 43.07% 53.36% 3.57% -29,208 x Romney -10.28%
California 25 R+5 Buck McKeon R* 106,982 129,593 - 45.22% 54.78% 0.00% -22,611 TBD -9.56%
New Jersey 3 R+2 Jon Runyan R* 145,509 174,257 4,124 44.93% 53.80% 1.27% -28,748 TBD -8.88%
Texas 14 R+8 Randy Weber R 109,264 130,937 4,647 44.63% 53.48% 1.90% -21,673 Romney -8.85%
Iowa 3 R+1 Tom Latham R* 168,632 202,000 16,210 43.59% 52.22% 4.19% -33,368 x Obama -8.63%
Michigan 3 R+5 Justin Amash R* 144,108 171,675 10,500 44.17% 52.62% 3.22% -27,567 x Romney -8.45%
Minnesota 2 R+2 John Kline R* 164,338 193,587 521 45.85% 54.01% 0.15% -29,249 x Obama -8.16%
Iowa 4 R+4 Steve King R* 169,470 200,063 8,350 44.85% 52.94% 2.21% -30,593 x Romney -8.10%
North Carolina 8 R+12 Richard Hudson R 137,139 160,695 4,446 45.37% 53.16% 1.47% -23,556 Romney -7.79%
Virginia 2 R+5 Scott Rigell R* 142,548 166,231 443 46.10% 53.76% 0.14% -23,683 Obama -7.66%
Nevada 3 EVEN Joe Heck R* 116,823 137,244 18,456 42.87% 50.36% 6.77% -20,421 x TBD -7.49%
Florida 16 R+5 Vern Buchanan R* 161,929 187,147 - 46.39% 53.61% 0.00% -25,218 x Romney -7.22%
New York 19 EVEN Chris Gibson R* 120,661 138,657 - 46.53% 53.47% 0.00% -17,996 Obama -6.94%
New York 11 R+4 Mike Grimm R* 82,401 94,102 1,782 46.22% 52.78% 1.00% -11,701 TBD -6.56%
Ohio 6 R+5 Bill Johnson R* 144,444 164,536 - 46.75% 53.25% 0.00% -20,092 x Romney -6.50%
Michigan 11 R+4 K Bentivolio R 158,879 181,788 17,472 44.36% 50.76% 4.88% -22,909 x Romney -6.40%
North Carolina 9 R+10 Rob Pittenger R 171,503 194,537 9,650 45.65% 51.78% 2.57% -23,034 Romney -6.13%
Florida 2 R+3 S Southerland R* 157,634 175,856 228 47.24% 52.70% 0.07% -18,222 x Romney -5.46%
California 10 R+5 Jeff Denham R* 98,934 110,265 - 47.29% 52.71% 0.00% -11,331 TBD -5.42%
Ohio 16 R+5 Jim Renacci R* 170,600 185,165 - 47.95% 52.05% 0.00% -14,565 x Romney -4.09%
Kentucky 6 R+7 Andy Barr R 141,438 153,223 8,340 46.68% 50.57% 2.75% -11,785 x Romney -3.89%
Pennsylvania 12 R+6 Keith Rothfus R 161,397 173,340 - 48.22% 51.78% 0.00% -11,943 Romney -3.57%
New York 23 R+3 Thomas Reed R* 124,527 133,697 - 48.22% 51.78% 0.00% -9,170 Romney -3.55%
Florida 10 R+7 Daniel Webster R* 153,574 164,649 46 48.25% 51.73% 0.01% -11,075 x Romney -3.48%
Colorado 6 R+1 Mike Coffman R* 156,929 163,922 22,039 45.77% 47.81% 6.43% -6,993 TBD -2.04%
Nebraska 2 R+6 Lee Terry R* 129,767 133,964 - 49.20% 50.80% 0.00% -4,197 x Romney -1.59%
New York 27 R+7 Chris Collins R 154,898 159,773 - 49.23% 50.77% 0.00% -4,875 Romney -1.55%
Indiana 2 R+7 Jackie Walorski R 130,113 134,033 9,329 47.58% 49.01% 3.41% -3,920 x Romney -1.43%
Minnesota 6 R+8 Michele Bachman R* 174,944 179,240 969 49.26% 50.47% 0.27% -4,296 x Romney -1.21%
Michigan 1 R+4 Dan Benishek R* 165,179 167,060 14,798 47.60% 48.14% 4.26% -1,881 x Romney -0.54%
Illinois 13 D+1 Rodney Davis R 136,032 137,034 21,319 46.21% 46.55% 7.24% -1,002 x TBD -0.34%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHZCbzJocGtxYkR6OTdZbzZwRUFvS3c#gid=0
As others have pointed out, you only actually need to flip half of those. So that would mean winning all of them with a Republican margin of 6.5% or less.