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In reply to the discussion: CNN reporting an ABC News Poll: Harris up by 6 Points [View all]Farmer-Rick
(12,786 posts)21. I found this study of polls to be interesting
Though pollsters claim 95% confidence level, polls are usually accurate only 60% of the time and that's 1 week before the election. It gets worse as you move out from the election date.
Any they also agree that doubling the MOE, will give you a more accurate prediction.
"Most polls report a 95% confidence interval. But we found that the actual election outcome only lands inside that interval 60% of the timeand thats just a week before the election. Further out, the hit rates fall even farther."
https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/polling-101-how-accurate-are-election-polls/
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It's only a "slight" lead because we are Democrats. 6pts for an R is a nuclear lead.
Maru Kitteh
Sep 2024
#7
I guess I don't hold our "founding fathers" in such high regard as many people.
groundloop
Sep 2024
#30
My guess is, he's not. I don't trust the pollsters, nor their methods.
mucholderthandirt
Sep 2024
#16
Six point lead for Trump, the MSM, would call insurmountable. We know who they are in the tank for
AZLD4Candidate
Sep 2024
#23
This has nothing to do with the popular vote *determining* the presidency, but it does *strongly correlate*
RidinWithHarris
Sep 2024
#42
If the subject is polling, the subject is automatically correlation, not causation
RidinWithHarris
Sep 2024
#47
If you're a Democrat, specifically the Democratic candidate for president . . .
peggysue2
Sep 2024
#37