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LauraInLA

(2,248 posts) Thu Oct 24, 2024, 12:01 PM Oct 2024

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"The Blowout No One Sees Coming" from Vantage Data House [View all]

Has anyone heard of this group?

“Vantage has been tracking seven swing states daily since August. Until recently, the race consistently appeared as a toss-up. Just a few days ago, the numbers started to shift. It's clear the momentum is moving away from Trump. Here's how our nightly tracking data (1,200 interviews per state) stacks up against what FiveThirtyEight (538) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) are reporting in their averages.”

https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1

60 replies

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"The Blowout No One Sees Coming" from Vantage Data House [View all] LauraInLA Oct 2024 OP

Never heard of them but very encouraging analysis Wiz Imp Oct 2024 #1

Hmmm dweller Oct 2024 #2

Polling averages cannot be trusted due to manipulation by corrupt Red Wave pollsters. Nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #3

Some polling averages exclude partisan polls. CaptainTruth Oct 2024 #18

No major aggregator excludes all Red Wave pollsters Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #33

Which is why I ignore major aggregators like the two you mentioned... CaptainTruth Oct 2024 #47

Check out VoteHub. PAMod Oct 2024 #54

This looks more realistic Rstrstx Oct 2024 #57

Graded by who? Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #58

Interesting snip: Dennis Donovan Oct 2024 #4

How, exactly, does "noise" differ among the polls? What is "noise?" nt LAS14 Oct 2024 #10

Here's an old article from 2018: Dennis Donovan Oct 2024 #15

Interesting article, but it doesn't tell me what "noise" is.... LAS14 Oct 2024 #19

Well, I'll try cally Oct 2024 #30

Thanks! So if a poll has noise that doesn't necessarily mean a poll is bad, right? nt LAS14 Oct 2024 #48

ALL polls have noise, more or less, so yes, not necessarily bad. . . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2024 #50

Yes cally Oct 2024 #56

Voters' intentions form a signal. "Noise" is an engineering term meaning anything corrupting a signal. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2024 #31

Thanks. nt LAS14 Oct 2024 #49

It's all those manipulated, faked GOP polls Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #23

yeah, I've seen that. Very curious discrepancy. LymphocyteLover Oct 2024 #42

Also interesting data on split ticket dweller Oct 2024 #5

OMG! I didn't realize Kamala was losing in every swing states on RCP and most on 538. Doodley Oct 2024 #7

It reflects a recent flood of Republican-leaning polls meant to influence the averages. SunSeeker Oct 2024 #21

Yes!!! wolfie001 Oct 2024 #34

Well, I guess that's one way to put your thumb on the scale. calimary Oct 2024 #41

Real Clear Politics is itself a Republican leaning organization. lees1975 Oct 2024 #37

Might be worth looking at Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg OnDoutside Oct 2024 #52

This is one point I. Very uncertain of -- Robinson is simply soooo terrible that I'm willing to bet LauraInLA Oct 2024 #8

Yes, NC doesn't make sense. In fact, very little of the polling data makes sense. A lot of people are saying Trump is LymphocyteLover Oct 2024 #43

Very interesting GusBob Oct 2024 #6

Are the Vantage number an average, or the results of the latest poll? LAS14 Oct 2024 #9

I'm unclear on this, as well, but they claim they're getting data from 40k responses per state per year with an LauraInLA Oct 2024 #11

Looks to be the latest numbers but MontanaFarmer Oct 2024 #28

I hope they're right. Martin68 Oct 2024 #12

My husband's take: LauraInLA Oct 2024 #13

Apparently this org has arisen from an Entrepreneurial Accelerator Program. LauraInLA Oct 2024 #14

It sounds to me like GusBob Oct 2024 #17

Well, the orange fatso is an insane shitbag so...... wolfie001 Oct 2024 #16

NC will be an interesting case study dsc Oct 2024 #20

Are you telling me that talking about Arnold Palmer's penis is not a winning campaign strategy? Ray Bruns Oct 2024 #22

It's "they're eating the dogs" Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #24

I guess he's wondering where the geese went - how about Florida. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 2024 #53

No doubt. Trumpy is lurching from major mistake to major mistake. n/t PatrickforB Oct 2024 #26

This is very good information! Thank you. n/t PatrickforB Oct 2024 #25

Never heard of them but it's interesting jgmiller Oct 2024 #27

If these guys have gamed the pollsters, they will be top dog going forward bucolic_frolic Oct 2024 #29

I don't understand Figure 7 Orange Buffoon Oct 2024 #32

I've been doing my own own averages. At least half of the polls are RW. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 2024 #35

Look at their data collection. lees1975 Oct 2024 #36

Hubby and I voted today Katcat Oct 2024 #38

Thanks for this! shotten99 Oct 2024 #39

I don't buy that Harris is behind in AZ. And I don't buy her taking FL. They didn't list WI...seems odd PortTack Oct 2024 #40

Later on in the article Vantage House says Trump unlikely to lose FL crimycarny Oct 2024 #59

Political polling company Warpy Oct 2024 #44

How did WI get replaced with FL in their list of 7? BWdem4life Oct 2024 #45

Kick Coexist Oct 2024 #46

Noone? Lol.... getagrip_already Oct 2024 #51

It shouldn't be that close in the first place Dem4life1234 Oct 2024 #55

Florida +3.7% for Harris? RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #60