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In reply to the discussion: "The Blowout No One Sees Coming" from Vantage Data House [View all]
Dennis Donovan
(31,059 posts)4. Interesting snip:
Noise in the Numbers: The Great Polling Mirage
Why do our numbers tell a different story than the averages? Simple: public polling is riddled with noise.
Republicans are in serious trouble, though few are willing to acknowledge it. Every major Republican Senate candidate is trailing in swing states according to leaked Senate Leadership Fund polling. Some split-ticket voting still happens, but every major Senate race is down by 5-8 points while Trump leads in the presidential polls. The math just doesn’t add up.
Why do our numbers tell a different story than the averages? Simple: public polling is riddled with noise.
Republicans are in serious trouble, though few are willing to acknowledge it. Every major Republican Senate candidate is trailing in swing states according to leaked Senate Leadership Fund polling. Some split-ticket voting still happens, but every major Senate race is down by 5-8 points while Trump leads in the presidential polls. The math just doesn’t add up.
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Polling averages cannot be trusted due to manipulation by corrupt Red Wave pollsters. Nt
Fiendish Thingy
Oct 2024
#3
Thanks! So if a poll has noise that doesn't necessarily mean a poll is bad, right? nt
LAS14
Oct 2024
#48
ALL polls have noise, more or less, so yes, not necessarily bad. . . . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2024
#50
Voters' intentions form a signal. "Noise" is an engineering term meaning anything corrupting a signal.
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2024
#31
OMG! I didn't realize Kamala was losing in every swing states on RCP and most on 538.
Doodley
Oct 2024
#7
It reflects a recent flood of Republican-leaning polls meant to influence the averages.
SunSeeker
Oct 2024
#21
This is one point I. Very uncertain of -- Robinson is simply soooo terrible that I'm willing to bet
LauraInLA
Oct 2024
#8
Yes, NC doesn't make sense. In fact, very little of the polling data makes sense. A lot of people are saying Trump is
LymphocyteLover
Oct 2024
#43
I'm unclear on this, as well, but they claim they're getting data from 40k responses per state per year with an
LauraInLA
Oct 2024
#11
Are you telling me that talking about Arnold Palmer's penis is not a winning campaign strategy?
Ray Bruns
Oct 2024
#22
If these guys have gamed the pollsters, they will be top dog going forward
bucolic_frolic
Oct 2024
#29
I've been doing my own own averages. At least half of the polls are RW.
kerry-is-my-prez
Oct 2024
#35