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Martin68

(27,490 posts)

12. I hope they're right.

Reply to LauraInLA (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2024, 12:36 PM

Oct 2024

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"The Blowout No One Sees Coming" from Vantage Data House [View all] LauraInLA Oct 2024 OP

Never heard of them but very encouraging analysis Wiz Imp Oct 2024 #1

Hmmm dweller Oct 2024 #2

Polling averages cannot be trusted due to manipulation by corrupt Red Wave pollsters. Nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #3

Some polling averages exclude partisan polls. CaptainTruth Oct 2024 #18

No major aggregator excludes all Red Wave pollsters Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #33

Which is why I ignore major aggregators like the two you mentioned... CaptainTruth Oct 2024 #47

Check out VoteHub. PAMod Oct 2024 #54

This looks more realistic Rstrstx Oct 2024 #57

Graded by who? Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #58

Interesting snip: Dennis Donovan Oct 2024 #4

How, exactly, does "noise" differ among the polls? What is "noise?" nt LAS14 Oct 2024 #10

Here's an old article from 2018: Dennis Donovan Oct 2024 #15

Interesting article, but it doesn't tell me what "noise" is.... LAS14 Oct 2024 #19

Well, I'll try cally Oct 2024 #30

Thanks! So if a poll has noise that doesn't necessarily mean a poll is bad, right? nt LAS14 Oct 2024 #48

ALL polls have noise, more or less, so yes, not necessarily bad. . . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2024 #50

Yes cally Oct 2024 #56

Voters' intentions form a signal. "Noise" is an engineering term meaning anything corrupting a signal. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2024 #31

Thanks. nt LAS14 Oct 2024 #49

It's all those manipulated, faked GOP polls Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #23

yeah, I've seen that. Very curious discrepancy. LymphocyteLover Oct 2024 #42

Also interesting data on split ticket dweller Oct 2024 #5

OMG! I didn't realize Kamala was losing in every swing states on RCP and most on 538. Doodley Oct 2024 #7

It reflects a recent flood of Republican-leaning polls meant to influence the averages. SunSeeker Oct 2024 #21

Yes!!! wolfie001 Oct 2024 #34

Well, I guess that's one way to put your thumb on the scale. calimary Oct 2024 #41

Real Clear Politics is itself a Republican leaning organization. lees1975 Oct 2024 #37

Might be worth looking at Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg OnDoutside Oct 2024 #52

This is one point I. Very uncertain of -- Robinson is simply soooo terrible that I'm willing to bet LauraInLA Oct 2024 #8

Yes, NC doesn't make sense. In fact, very little of the polling data makes sense. A lot of people are saying Trump is LymphocyteLover Oct 2024 #43

Very interesting GusBob Oct 2024 #6

Are the Vantage number an average, or the results of the latest poll? LAS14 Oct 2024 #9

I'm unclear on this, as well, but they claim they're getting data from 40k responses per state per year with an LauraInLA Oct 2024 #11

Looks to be the latest numbers but MontanaFarmer Oct 2024 #28

I hope they're right. Martin68 Oct 2024 #12

My husband's take: LauraInLA Oct 2024 #13

Apparently this org has arisen from an Entrepreneurial Accelerator Program. LauraInLA Oct 2024 #14

It sounds to me like GusBob Oct 2024 #17

Well, the orange fatso is an insane shitbag so...... wolfie001 Oct 2024 #16

NC will be an interesting case study dsc Oct 2024 #20

Are you telling me that talking about Arnold Palmer's penis is not a winning campaign strategy? Ray Bruns Oct 2024 #22

It's "they're eating the dogs" Farmer-Rick Oct 2024 #24

I guess he's wondering where the geese went - how about Florida. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 2024 #53

No doubt. Trumpy is lurching from major mistake to major mistake. n/t PatrickforB Oct 2024 #26

This is very good information! Thank you. n/t PatrickforB Oct 2024 #25

Never heard of them but it's interesting jgmiller Oct 2024 #27

If these guys have gamed the pollsters, they will be top dog going forward bucolic_frolic Oct 2024 #29

I don't understand Figure 7 Orange Buffoon Oct 2024 #32

I've been doing my own own averages. At least half of the polls are RW. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 2024 #35

Look at their data collection. lees1975 Oct 2024 #36

Hubby and I voted today Katcat Oct 2024 #38

Thanks for this! shotten99 Oct 2024 #39

I don't buy that Harris is behind in AZ. And I don't buy her taking FL. They didn't list WI...seems odd PortTack Oct 2024 #40

Later on in the article Vantage House says Trump unlikely to lose FL crimycarny Oct 2024 #59

Political polling company Warpy Oct 2024 #44

How did WI get replaced with FL in their list of 7? BWdem4life Oct 2024 #45

Kick Coexist Oct 2024 #46

Noone? Lol.... getagrip_already Oct 2024 #51

It shouldn't be that close in the first place Dem4life1234 Oct 2024 #55

Florida +3.7% for Harris? RidinWithHarris Oct 2024 #60