Allan Lichtman seems to be onto something when looking at several races. I'm not sure closing arguments matter at all.

[yardwork]

2. It's puzzling to me because I follow politics so closely.

However, I know that many people aren't as interested in politics; in fact, many people don't really like politics, so they avoid it. But they do vote, and I think they make their decision in the final days, and their decisions are often based on an eclectic set of things.

I think a lot of people do "go with their gut."

My instinct is that a lot of people are getting tired of the extreme MAGA behavior and hysteria.