Allan Lichtman seems to be onto something when looking at several races. I'm not sure closing arguments matter at all.

[lapfog_1]

3. None of the polls matter now.

Polls are always always looking back in time... it can take days to get polling results that have an statistical merit. You have to get X number of people from representative demographics to formulate a result that might be "within the margin of error", and a LOT of people simply don't want to be polled or even be contacted... land lines are nearly extinct at this point and some people are so fed up with polling that they will answer but LIE to the poll takers just to "f" with the system.

To get a more accurate poll you need a lot of responses ( reducing that margin of error ), thousands... and by the time the 100 phone bank people get the required responses... something else has happened in the news cycles that can change opinions ( like General Kelly telling people that Trump is a fascist, for example ), so by the end of the polling period the poll is almost worthless. After early voting starts... you really can count only on exit polls... but the majority of people haven't voted yet.

Democrats vote early, repukes vote on election day ( mostly ). But some states are prevented from counting mail in votes until election day ( big dumps Trump would call them... trying to claim that those are frauds ).

We need to wait until a week from Thursday for some of the tight races in battleground states... unless this is a blowout one way or another.