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TwilightZone

(28,836 posts)
8. MOE isn't a theory.
Fri Nov 1, 2024, 05:46 PM
Nov 2024

It's math. Just because one thinks it should only apply in one direction doesn't mean it does.

The assertion that Trump has never been, nor could he ever be, above 47% in the polls is a myth that won't die. It's only true if one ignores every poll that's ever been above that.

Trump has been at 49-50% as recently as last weekend. Emerson had him at 49%. They're in the top 10 on 538's ratings. YouGov had him at 49% on the poll that ended on the 25th. They're #4. Other polls have also shown him at 49%-50%.

To be clear, I don't think he'll end up above 47%. Just pointing out that the assertion has no basis in fact.



Recommendations

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2-3% lead with a 4% MOE isn't exactly"getting crushed" nt Fiendish Thingy Nov 2024 #1
Great minds and all that... TwilightZone Nov 2024 #3
It isn't of course OKIsItJustMe Nov 2024 #5
It's the title of the video - Tim Miller named it Earthrise Nov 2024 #11
A 2-3% lead in polls that have an MOE isn't even remotely "crushed" TwilightZone Nov 2024 #2
Just check the poster's bio NoRethugFriends Nov 2024 #4
Sources OKIsItJustMe Nov 2024 #6
There is too much value being put on MOE Deminpenn Nov 2024 #7
MOE isn't a theory. TwilightZone Nov 2024 #8
It's your theory and conclusion Deminpenn Nov 2024 #9
No clue where you got that idea. TwilightZone Nov 2024 #10
I understand MOE is a statistical calculation Deminpenn Nov 2024 #13
A wild supposition OKIsItJustMe Nov 2024 #12
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