So, the 538 polls only got it half right.

[TwilightZone]

6. Assuming the 3% MOE applies, the poll averages were pretty spot-on.

Individual polls had more variation, of course, but many of the latest had it 50/49 one way or the other, which is right in the ballpark. Harris is running about a 3/2 split in California, so the gap will also get a bit smaller.

I split undecideds 50/50 for two reasons:

1) It's easy for math purposes
2) We won't know the real split until all votes are in and someone like Pew does some post-election analysis.

I suspect that the real number is higher than 50% for Trump because it seemed like he had momentum, but undecideds are unpredictable.