We lost because the incumbent president had a 39% approval rating and 70% of Americans felt we were on the wrong track.

[onenote]

21. Correct.

I know all the arguments about prices coming down, about gas being less on an inflation adjusted basis than it was 50 years ago, etc. Those arguments don't matter to the vast majority of voters. They don't care what their grandfathers paid for gas. What they care about, and what drives their perception, is that even with gas prices falling in late 2024, the price was still higher than it had been at any point during the Trump years, both before and after the pandemic. Some illustrative numbers, recognizing that these are national averages and that local and regional numbers can vary quite a bit: during the first Trump administration, regular gas never was at or above $3.00/gallon and was under $2.50 19 months, including quite a few months prior to the pandemic. During the past four years, the price of regular gas was under $3/gallon for only 3 months, all at the start of the Biden administration. Otherwise, it was between $3 and $4 for 37 months, $4 and $5 for five months, and over $5 one month. Those numbers create a perception that is hard to turn around. Same thing for grocery prices. Yes, they stabilized and even began dropping the past year. But what most people pay for their weekly groceries is still higher than they remember it being. And the increase in wages doesn't really offset it, because the good news of getting a raise is diluted when a good portion of that raise is spent on more expensive items like groceries and gas.

I hate to say it, but the outcome of the election probably was baked in from the start -- just as Joe's victory in 2020 was a "change" election, driven by dissatisfaction with the Trump presidency, particularly the pandemic, the 2024 election also was a "change" election, driven in large part by dissatisfaction with the economy.