Pelosi Won. The Democratic Party Lost.

[Celerity]

7. Here is a breakdown on the Progressive Caucus and the New Democrat Coalition numbers

If you look at the new incoming Dem House class, we are seeing a large amount of new moderates/centrists coming in (outpacing incoming progressives), and the Progressive Caucus losing some of its sitting members.

If we look at the centrist New Democrat Coalition in the House (who came out against AOC for Ranking member on Oversight), they did lose some sitting members, but they have a large amount of new, expected members.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrat_Coalition

They lost 15 sitting members

Adam Schiff (CA-30) (Retired to Run for U.S. Senate)
Yadira Caraveo (CO-8) (Defeated)
Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE-AL) (Retired to run for U.S. Senate)
David Trone (MD-6) (Retired)
Elissa Slotkin (MI-7) (Retired to run for U.S. Senate)
Dean Phillips (MN-3) (Retired)
Ann McLane Kuster (NH-2) – Chair (Retired)
Kathy Manning (NC-6) – Freshman Leadership Representative (Retired)
Wiley Nickel (NC-13) (Retired)
Jeff Jackson (NC-14) (Retired to run for NC AG)
Susan Wild (PA-7) (Defeated)
Colin Allred (TX-32) (Retired to run for U.S. Senate)
Abigail Spanberger (VA-7) (Retired)
Jennifer Wexton (VA-10) (Retired)
Derek Kilmer (WA-6) – Vice Chair for Policy (Retired)

but they have 25 likely new members coming in

Shomari Figures (AL-02)
Adam Gray (CA-13)
Sam Liccardo (CA-16)
George Whitesides (CA-27)
Gil Cisneros (CA-31)
Derek Tran (CA-45)
Sarah McBride (DE-AL)
Johnny Olszewski (MD-02)
Sarah Elfreth (MD-03)
April McClain-Delaney (MD-06)
Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-08)
Kelly Morrison (MN-03)
Wesley Bell (MO-01)
Maggie Goodlander (NH-02)
Herb Conaway (NJ-03)
Nellie Pou (NJ-09)
Laura Gillen (NY-04)
George Latimer (NY-16)
Josh Riley (NY-19)
John Mannion (NY-22)
Janelle Bynum (OR-05)
Julie Johnson (TX-32)
Eugene Vindman (VA-07)
Suhas Subramanyam (VA-10)
Emily Randall (WA-06)

That would net them a total of 109 members in the new House.

The Congressional Progressive Caucus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_members_of_the_Congressional_Progressive_Caucus

currently has 95 members in the House, but they lost 9 who will not be in the next House

Barbara Lee (CA-12, Oakland) (retiring at the end of the 118th Congress)
Grace Napolitano (CA-31, Norwalk) (retiring at the end of the 118th Congress)
Katie Porter (CA-47, Irvine) (retiring at the end of the 118th Congress)
Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE at-large) (won 2024 Delaware Senate election)
Cori Bush (MO-1, St. Louis) (Lost Renomination)
Andy Kim (NJ-3, Bordentown) (Won 2024 New Jersey Senate Election)
Jamaal Bowman (NY-16, Bronx) (Lost Renomination)
Earl Blumenauer (OR-3, Portland) (retiring at the end of the 118th Congress)
Matt Cartwright (PA-8, Scranton) (Lost Re election)

and they only have 9 likely inbound new members

Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03, Phoenix)
Lateefah Simon, (CA-12, Emeryville)
Luz Rivas, (CA-29, Los Angeles)
Laura Friedman, (CA-30, Glendale)
Dave Min, (CA-47, Irvine)
Sarah McBride (DE-AL, Wilmington)
Nellie Pou (NJ-09, North Haledon)
LaMonica McIver (NJ-10, Newark)
Maxine Dexter (OR-03, Portland)

all that yields a roughly 14 seat lead (as some are or will be members in both caucuses) for the centrists/moderates over the progressives

and that 14 seat gap is even greater when you add in the 11 or so (almost all of whom are amongst the most conservative Dems) who are in either the Blue Dog and/or Problem Solvers caucuses and who are not in the New Democrat Coalition nor (of course) in the Progressive Caucus.

I would take a guess and say that there is probably a 20 or so seat advantage in terms of House members (when the new Congress starts) who would vote against AOC for any actual leadership position. That is a tough number to overcome for AOC, and it could PERHAPS grow to even more of a gap over the next few elections, given current trends inside our electoral results.

We have some real anti-progressive House members, who are openly hostile towards some of the progressive leaders, AOC included. Some of those have left for other adventures (outside of the House) but others are still there, or have recently come back (Tom Suozzi), or have since switched sides, from prog to anti-prog (Ritchie Torres for example, who left the Progressive Caucus in February 2024 and has become very anti Squad), or who are perhaps coming into the new House this upcoming term.

So at least for a few election cycles (unless Jeffries and others, including of course Pelosi, etc change their tune on her) I think AOC is facing a chilly environment in terms of regaining her upward leadership trajectory.

I am dismayed by that, but I am nothing if not a number-counting realist and overall trend-watcher.

The MASSIVE wild card (of course) is Trump, as he VERY likely will fuck shit up so badly that we may well see a huge swing towards Dems, with that Blue tidal wave hopefully dragging in a lot more progressives. At least I hope that occurs.