"Deus ex machina", my friends.

[Ocelot II]

16. A Deus ex Machina is quite different from a Black Swan.

The Deus ex Machina ("god from the machine" ) was a device originating from ancient Greek theater, in which an actor playing a god was lowered by ropes and pulleys onto the stage to solve an apparently hopeless problem. That is definitely not our situation; nothing is coming from outside the situation to solve our problem (God could dangle down from the heavens and strike Trump dead, but then we'd have Vance and probably Musk anyhow, so we're still screwed). A Black Swan event is something unexpected that has significant effect. Knowing something is likely to happen isn't the same as predicting the event itself. Something significant is certain to happen because the upcoming kakistocracy will be so unstable as to make some huge goat-fuck inevitable. But there are so many moving parts and unpredictable actors that it's impossible to know what it will be. My guess is that we will be visited by a whole flock of Black Swans over the next four years.