NASA: 'City Killer' Asteroid has 3% Chance of Hitting Earth [View all]

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Asteroid 2024 YR4 is traveling at 40,000 MPH. (Imagery: NASA)

An asteroid that could level a city now has a 3.1% chance of striking Earth in 2032, according to NASA, making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting. But, despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation.

2024 YR4 was first detected on 27 Dec 2024 by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.

Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.

NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1 percent, with a potential Earth impact date of 22 Dec 2032.

That translates to odds of one in 32 -- roughly the same as correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses. The last time an asteroid of greater than 30 meters in size posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 -- a possibility later ruled out by additional observations.

NASA successfully deflected Didymos with a DART.





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Sources:

https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250218-city-killer-asteroid-now-has-3-1-chance-of-hitting-earth-nasa