There are often debates about just when the new administration can reasonably be held accountable. After all, the normal case is that they come in with moderate shifts in policy, and those may take 6 months to get into legislation, and another 6 months to show in real world data.
This is completely different. Trump is coming in with radical policies, immediately shutting down agencies and imposing big tariffs on our biggest trading partners. All those government agencies he is sabotaging put money into the economy. By tariff-mongering, this causes businesses to pre-stock, to get goods into inventory before the tariffs cut in. Individuals have been operating on a "wea;the effect" mentality for years given a sustained boom in the markets. But that is crashing. Just today, when Trump reiterated tariffs, the market immediately dropped 3%.
Experts are saying that car prices will jump 5-10% very quickly. That doesn't mean people will pay 10% more. It means they will stop buying cars. Building materials are going up with the tariffs on Canadian lumber, so housing starts will suffer.
All of this in 40 days. A Trump recession is not just a possibility, it is now looking highly likely. Fortunately the financial press is a lot more honest than the mainstream pop culture/politics (with Trump, politics IS pop culture and is reported as such). The financial people are serious because they are talking about real money. For example, here is Forbes talking very plainly about that Atlanta projection mentioned in the OP.
https://fortune.com/2025/03/01/us-economy-recession-outlook-q1-gdp-contraction-trump-tariffs-doge-job-cuts-consumer-spending-inflation/
Billionaires are propping Trump up. We;ll see how they change their tune with things start crashing.
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