The economic pain we are headed for, Recession and Inflation

[Bluetus]

14. All true. I would just note that

when we say "this quarter", we are talking Jan-Mar. This shrinkage happened entirely from Trump's daily bellicose and ignorant proclamations. The tariff stuff has not yet even entered the GDP equation yet.

And I completely agree with you about the dollar being in trouble. You mentioned that foreign holders can wreak havoc by not buying Treasuries. But there is an even more fundamental issue here. Since the election, the dollar has lost 10% of its value against all the major currencies. That means, everything we import costs a lot more, even BEFORE the tariffs. And it means that foreigners investing in US Treasuries have LOST money in the past 6 months if they value their wealth in Euros, Canadian dollars, Pounds or whatever.

THAT is a good reason for them reducing their stake in US Treasuries.

Trump is an idiot. But this time, he has surrounded himself with nothing but people who are every bit as stupid as he is. None of them have the slightest clue what they are doing economically.