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DFW

(60,707 posts)
10. The EU is trying to figure out whether or not to consider Russia a serious threat again
Tue May 6, 2025, 07:02 AM
May 2025

Just this past week a big article appeared in the German press speculating that the EU on its own couldn't repel a Russian attack. But I think the long term Russian view (as seen in Putin's eyes, anyway) is to neuter the EU as a military and political force. Putin has had to confront the weakness of his own military with his Ukrainian invasion. As far as the EU goes, I think that long term, he is facing the same question China is facing with Taiwan. China COULD invade Taiwan, and after some initial fierce resistance, conquer the island. But at what cost? Taiwan has a sopuisticated economy, tech industry and infrastructure. Beijing wants to own that intact, not destroy it and build it up again from the ground up. If they have the patience (and so far, they have), they'l just infiltrate and finance the politics to the point where re-unification will will a 50.2% vote, like Brexit, and not a shot will be fired.

The EU doesn't have one single opinion on the Russian manipulation, but we get the hint from a friend who was a years-long German news correspondent based in Moscow. He lived Putin's inner military adventures (Chechnya, eg) and his casual convenient murders (Anna Politovskaya--happened while we were visiting him there). Those people who have an opinion (far from all) tend to think that 2016 WAS a Russian coup of sorts, Putin knew Hillary, and was terrified of her. Trump owed Putin (via Deutsche Bank) money, and was far more susceptible to manipulation.

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