Exit poll in Polish presidential run-off puts candidates neck and neck [View all]

[muriel_volestrangler]

An exit poll in Poland’s crucial presidential run-off suggested the race is too close to call, giving a slight lead to the liberal contender, Rafał Trzaskowski, but with the difference between the two candidates within the margin of error.

The poll by Ipsos Poland, released at 9pm local time (8pm BST) on Sunday as polls closed, put Trzaskowski, backed by the current government led by Donald Tusk, on 50.3%, with the rightwing contender Karol Nawrocki on 49.7%. The poll’s margin of error was 2%.

Despite the slim margin offered by the poll, Trzaskowski immediately appeared on stage in Warsaw to claim victory. “We’ve won!” he announced to cheers from the crowd, before giving a victory speech thanking his family and supporters. In a speech at his own campaign headquarters, Nawrocki did not concede, saying he remained confident he would win when all the votes were counted.
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Trzaskowski is the pro-European, progressive mayor of Warsaw, who supports the liberalisation of abortion laws and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBT couples. Nawrocki, a historian and former amateur boxer, has firmly rejected these moves and would likely veto any moves to implement them if elected.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/01/exit-poll-in-polish-presidential-run-off-puts-candidates-neck-and-neck

Second exit poll – OGB for Republika – backs this.

It’s too close to call.

Rafał Trzaskowski 50.17%
Karol Nawrocki 49.83%

That’s about 70,000 votes. In a country of 37 million.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/01/polls-set-to-close-in-tight-presidential-race-in-poland-live?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-683ca34e8f088b2f036ec61f#block-683ca34e8f088b2f036ec61f