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Igel

(37,672 posts)
19. "Unless of course they can" is a nice reply.
Sun Jun 29, 2025, 06:51 PM
Jun 2025

But it applies all over the place.

"The JCPOA would have stopped this!" Unless of course it wouldn't.

It depends what state they store it in.

Take cerium, for example. You look at the price of cerium per ounce, you'll get weird results--even when they say just "cerium" they mean cerium oxide. The oxide isn't useful; you need the metal to make the alloy.

Same for UF6, what they get out of the centrifuges (and what they put in). They heat the UF6 and centrifuge the gas. Take the heaviest fraction and separate it out. And the U is enriched. They let it cool to room temperature and it's a solid. But it's pretty useless because of all the fluorine.

Next step is to make it into a metal. This is where you risk "teasing the dragon" or whatever they call it at Alamo in the '40s. Get too much of that enriched metal in one place it will start to undergo a chain reaction, glow, produce gobs of radiation. That's bad. Get more in one place and it'll start to heat up and maybe meltdown. That's worse. It's safer to store the U as UF6.

So it's stored as UF6. But until you remove the fluorine--which will result in anything from a lump to a lot of microfine U-235 powder, depending how you let it condense back down to a solid--no bomb in the offing. (That's the point being made. It sublimates above any temperature we'd want to try to survive, but below water's boiling point.) Whether they can do that is a different point, but a valid one. Why?

Because all the reports are that they could resume *enriching* uranium in a few weeks to a few months--depending on what we don't know. "Enriching" is bad, but doesn't automatically later that afternoon allow something to be placed in a bomb, unless it's just a dirty bomb and you want to spread U-235 all over the place.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Unless of course they can. Or unless they just simply load enriched uranium in a bomb and have an ordinary Wonder Why Jun 2025 #1
China went from enriched uranium to a weapon in 4-5 weeks. That's the margin of error Melon Jun 2025 #2
Yup. People are seriously underestimating Iran's motivation now Arazi Jun 2025 #3
If they could get a bomb from Pakistan speak easy Jun 2025 #4
Obviously Pakistan wouldn't help them before this Arazi Jun 2025 #5
N. Korea and Iranian oil!! n/t Ars Longa Jun 2025 #8
Let Israel deal with them then fujiyamasan Jun 2025 #10
"Unless of course they can" is a nice reply. Igel Jun 2025 #19
So, they get a new reactor vessel, a means to heat it, and some magnesium, and they're good to go. LudwigPastorius Jun 2025 #6
Why didn't David Albright speak easy Jun 2025 #7
I can appeal to authority too. LudwigPastorius Jun 2025 #20
"Iran could again begin enriching uranium in 'matter of months'" speak easy Jun 2025 #21
Manhattan Project TnDem Jun 2025 #11
I'm sure Iran isn't building anything near that scale anyway Arazi Jun 2025 #12
Remember this TnDem Jun 2025 #14
Nobody knows what equipment they have. Arazi Jun 2025 #15
True, but... TnDem Jun 2025 #16
China gave Pakistan help with their nuclear program Arazi Jun 2025 #17
One thing TnDem Jun 2025 #18
They already have a stockpile of 90% enriched uranium. LudwigPastorius Jun 2025 #13
India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea did not sign, ratify, or accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ping Tung Jun 2025 #9
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Iran will NOT have a nucl...»Reply #19