I hold a straight forward opinion: Obama offered moving to Chained CPI because he's open to it

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. Yes Boehner didn't have the votes. But we've been through that door before

I honestly dont know what it is with Boehner, how either he so misreads his power to influence his caucus or how he manages to convince others that he has power that he doesn't have, but we've been through grand bargain talks before this current round, and the exact same thing happened. Obama was willing to meet Boehner half way (in his own words) and then Boehner backed out and scuttled the negotiations. So I am not convinced that the President was convinced that the outline of a bigger deal that he and Boehner were kicking around this time was all pure shadow boxing. Maybe he thought the combination of the recent national election, the looming fiscal cliff, and sequestation being triggered, would lead to a different outcome this time. I dunno, I'm an agnostic on this topic.

A case can be made from the scenario you ran through above that Boehner tricked Obama into declaring support for a Chained CPI, and then outed him on it, believing once that genie was out of the bottle Democrats couldn't shove it back in again later. We will see. I do believe at the level of the game being played, any offer made becomes "serious" once it has been made. Yes perhaps it can be walked back later, but that isn't always easy, and itis far safer not to make an offer you are not prepared to live with in the first place. Politicians, like diplomats, have to be skilled at speaking in ways that do not pin them down to undesirable positions before they determin they are willing to actually go there.

I agree with you that it is possible for a strong enough public outcry to make the Chained CPI toxic, but that is what it will now take to drive a stake through the heart of that beast. Perhaps that is underway. The jury is still out.