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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(135,728 posts)
44. Top analyst says the next 5 years could see 'no growth in workers at all' and sends a warning about the fate of the U.S.
Mon Aug 4, 2025, 08:03 PM
Aug 2025

As the U.S. labor market shows clear signs of stalling, one of Wall Street’s leading strategists is sounding a sharp warning: With America’s workforce in a demographic crunch and historic changes in immigration policy underway, it is “quite possible that the next five years will see no growth in workers at all.”

The implications, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, are profound for the Federal Reserve and for investors—chief among them, the need for exceptional caution before lowering interest rates.

Kelly used his regular “Notes on the Week Ahead” research note to survey the implications—perhaps assess the damage—of Friday’s shocking jobs report, which revised downward job creation in May and June by 258,000 jobs. Furthermore, employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, well below the 110,000 consensus estimate. This left the average monthly increase for the past quarter at a paltry 35,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, as both employment numbers and labor force participation slipped further.

Kelly also highlighted signs of tightness in the labor market, namely the decline in the labor participation rate from 62.65% in July 2024 to 62.22% in July 2025. That translates to almost 1.2 million fewer people ages 16 and over who are working or actively looking for a job.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-analyst-says-next-5-194528362.html

Third analyst to say this. Maybe Krasnov can file another multi-million dollar lawsuit.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Someone is getting fired Demovictory9 Aug 2025 #1
TACO will be only a shell of himself ...after he explodes. BattleRow Aug 2025 #67
Well, 12-month period back to March 2024 is Biden's era. maxsolomon Aug 2025 #2
How is it that the estimates are always consistently wrong? MichMan Aug 2025 #7
regardless Skittles Aug 2025 #8
Because when the estimates are made only about 73% of the data is in EdmondDantes_ Aug 2025 #9
Many employers fail to report their numbers timely causing delay in accuracy wishstar Aug 2025 #10
Because they are estimates Random Boomer Aug 2025 #14
So pretty much just bullshit numbers based on incomplete data MichMan Aug 2025 #17
No, but they have to balance timelimess and accuracy ToxMarz Aug 2025 #25
What do you want? Quick, accurate or inexpensive? DBoon Aug 2025 #38
You Can Have Two ProfessorGAC Aug 2025 #47
Um, those "large" revisions for May & June? They actually represent a change of less than one tenth of one percent Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #41
They are going back nearly a year with revisions MichMan Aug 2025 #43
That is the procedure. I've explained this multiple times here already but I'll do it one more time. Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #45
Miniscule? MichMan Aug 2025 #63
You're apparently confused about the actual data being estimated here. Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #64
Thanks for your explanations! CaptainTruth Aug 2025 #65
You're welcome! Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #66
Additional Data VeryProgressive Aug 2025 #30
Estimates are NOT wrong Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #34
True, but are good & bad estimates. BLS estimates are GOOD estimates that miss by less than 0.5 pct & 0.1 pct. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2025 #58
Right. I just get annoyed when I hear people say something like BLS had to revise the estimates because they were wrong Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #61
Bc they are only wrong by less than 0.5 pct. US has about 130-140 million workers Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2025 #57
I agree that the revisions aren't very meaningful in the overall scope. MichMan Aug 2025 #73
Not wrong... bleedingulcers Aug 2025 #71
When his new BLS flunky is on the job Hassler Aug 2025 #3
On the shortlist of possible replacements underpants Aug 2025 #6
Wondering if he'll hire Alan Weisselberg. He always liked Alan's numbers. nt allegorical oracle Aug 2025 #15
Top economist warns the U.S. is 'on the precipice of recession'--and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue underpants Aug 2025 #4
I went with the safe route with my IRA's. Dr. T Aug 2025 #16
I went almost completely to bonds in Jan-Feb underpants Aug 2025 #20
Stagflation comes from supply shocks like tariff taxes & labour deportations & ('73, '79) oil embargos Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2025 #59
I work for a state representative Danmel Aug 2025 #5
No one wants his sh*tty economy not fooled Aug 2025 #11
I just hope the 77 million fools feel the pinch of their FAFO actions 100x more than ffr Aug 2025 #13
The ketchup index is up to an all time high. twodogsbarking Aug 2025 #12
Welcome to Trump's big beautiful stagflation - unemployment goes up AND prices go up dalton99a Aug 2025 #18
Well, to be honest, that happened before the orange gibbon got re-elected. OldBaldy1701E Aug 2025 #54
Thank you Mr. President! I feel Grate! chouchou Aug 2025 #19
I heard that employment is up 150000% since Trump took office. Midnight Writer Aug 2025 #21
It's true! One billion jobs were created last month alone. They are the bigliest numbers ever! Ray Bruns Aug 2025 #52
I heard that 22 billion Americans found jobs in July. C Moon Aug 2025 #68
Bigly! Ray Bruns Aug 2025 #69
It's going to be left to investment firms to tell the truth. kerry-is-my-prez Aug 2025 #22
I'm hoping for a depression. BidenRocks Aug 2025 #23
Unemployment, homelessness, poverty and hunger MichMan Aug 2025 #27
Another day in chumps America. BidenRocks Aug 2025 #28
Except I'm not hoping for it like you are MichMan Aug 2025 #29
And the A Bomb was what? BidenRocks Aug 2025 #31
I'm already depressed. Ray Bruns Aug 2025 #56
Gee, donny-boy. I guess it's true what we've said about you: calimary Aug 2025 #24
republicons claim full responsibility for their FAIL BoRaGard Aug 2025 #26
Why would we celebrate Greg_In_SF Aug 2025 #32
They will blame Biden anyway kerouac2 Aug 2025 #33
He'll say those losses were all before he took Figarosmom Aug 2025 #35
He fired half of the government slightlv Aug 2025 #36
Time for the former softball player press secretary Hassler Aug 2025 #37
There is no way for Goldman Sachs to have any inside information on this. Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #39
Well, Hornedfrog2000 Aug 2025 #50
Last year Goldman Sachs projected that the preliminary benchmark revision estimate was overstated by 500,000 Wiz Imp Aug 2025 #55
Nah D_Master81 Aug 2025 #40
Mr. trump'll have a tough time spinning this one Torchlight Aug 2025 #42
Top analyst says the next 5 years could see 'no growth in workers at all' and sends a warning about the fate of the U.S. Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Aug 2025 #44
THIS is why they're gerrymandering. They know that the economy is failing. OrlandoDem2 Aug 2025 #46
Has Trump always been like this? At Wharton, did he say bad grades were just "teachers out to make him look bad"? Beartracks Aug 2025 #48
No need to worry, this administration will hire 250,000 ICEtopol agents to balance it out. n/t aggiesal Aug 2025 #49
Why doesn't Trump just fire the economy? -misanthroptimist Aug 2025 #51
He fired his bathroom scale years ago and look what he gained from that. . . . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2025 #60
It's all true. One billion jobs were created last month alone! The numbers are the bigliest in history! Ray Bruns Aug 2025 #53
TACO won't be able to fire himself out of the economic disaster that he has created. It will be slow to develop, but it Martin68 Aug 2025 #62
Correction.... "YOU and I" get more bad economic news. Joe Nation Aug 2025 #70
"the 12-month period through March 2025." Biden was president for 9 of those 12 months Grins Aug 2025 #72
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