General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: ***BREAKING*** TACO gets even more bad news on US economy [View all]Wiz Imp
(10,033 posts)The estimates each month are produced from a sample of employers reporting their monthly employment levels. They are revised twice to account for late reported data. Ultimately these are still estimates. The universe of all jobs comes from UI Records which are required to be reported each quarter for every employer in every state. Once those universe counts are received and edited to remove obviously erroneous data, the March estimate is replaced with the universe count and then the difference is wedged back thru April of the prior year. This process is called benchmarking and It's been done that way since the beginning of the Survey in 1939 and is standard statistical procedure.
So every year, when January estimates are first released at the beginning of February, the data going back 21 months is revised. In fact, seasonally adjusted data are revised at least 5 years to account for updated seasonal adjustment factors. As I said, it has been done since the beginning and there is nothing unusual or remotely questionable about it.
Read about it here:
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm
https://www.bls.gov/blog/2019/what-is-benchmarking-of-bureau-of-labor-statistics-employment-data.htm