General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: ***BREAKING*** TACO gets even more bad news on US economy [View all]Wiz Imp
(10,137 posts)The number being estimated is the number of jobs NOT the change in jobs. So the real measure of the revision in the estimates is the difference in the total jobs from the previous estimate to the current estimate. And yes, it is absolutely miniscule. The previous jobs estimate for may was 159,577,000. The revised estimate was 159,452,000. That means the new May estimate was 99.92% of the previous estimate. That is indeed a MINISCULE revision of 0.08%. The previous estimate for June was 159,724,000. The revised estimate was 159,466,000. That means the new June estimate was 99.84% of the previous estimate. That is also a MINISCULE revision of 0.16%.
The over-the-month change is not directly estimated. It is a derived number from the actual job total estimates. What if the revision in May was from 1,144,000 to 1,019,000. That would be the exact same statistical revision, only by using your incorrect method of calculations, it would be very small. Because you're making the wrong comparison.
Trust me. I'm a professional statistician who worked on this very program. I know what I am talking about.