The next election cannot primarily be Democrat vs Republican...

[Wiz Imp]

27. Democrats lead in Generic Congressional vote polls.

They are in significantly better shape polling wise than the party opposing the President has typically been at in the midterm elections.

https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-lead-house-generic-ballot

Democrats ahead of normal midterm position, lag 2018

At 43%, support for Republicans is down nearly 5 percentage points from the start of the year. Democrats have increased their support by two points, from 43% on President Donald Trump's first day in office to just over 45% now.

Currently, Democrats lag behind their position at this point in the 2018 and 2006 midterm elections. But they are outperforming where the average “out-party” — the major party that is not in control of the White House — has been at this point in the cycle over the last 5 midterms.

From 2006 to 2022, the out-party was, on average, tied in the generic ballot in late July of the year before the midterm. Then, on average, that party gained 6 points in generic ballot polls over the following 16 months:

2022: Out-party: -4 (won by +3)

2018: Out-party: +6 (won by +8)

2014: Out-party: -3 (won by +6)

2010: Out-party: -4 (won by +7)

2006: Out-party: +5 (won by +8)

Average: Out-party: +0 (won by 6)

Today: Out-party: +2.3

To get a rough idea of what Democrats need to win the U.S. House next year, I have simulated several thousand alternative 2024 election outcomes based on two variables: (a) how many seats Republicans in Texas manage to gerrymander away from Democrats, and (b) the size of the Democratic share of the national House popular vote next November. Under the current map, a 2.5-point win translates to a 5-point swing since last November, and Democrats winning 222 House seats. At 8 points — the size of the 2018 "blue wave", Democrats would win 237 seats.

Some recent generic ballot polls:

Quantus Insights 8/11 - 8/13 45 42 Democrats +3
Economist/YouGov 8/1 - 8/4 44 38 Democrats +6
CNBC 7/29 - 8/3 49 44 Democrats +5
Yahoo News 7/24 - 7/28 46 39 Democrats +7