Does anyone know how the contracts for this years harvest stands?? We have a lot of corn and soy to move

[UpInArms]

3. Soybean Futures in 2025/26: A Structural Downtrend Confirmed by Oversupply, Weak China Demand, and Bearish Technicals

The soybean complex is entering a critical inflection point. For investors, the 2025/26 marketing year presents a rare alignment of structural oversupply, shifting demand dynamics, and bearish technical indicators that collectively justify a strategic short position in soybean meal futures—specifically the MZMQ25 contract. This is not a fleeting correction but a confluence of forces reshaping the global soybean trade.

Global Oversupply: The U.S. Harvest and the Illusion of Abundance

The U.S. soybean harvest for 2025, while marked by a record yield of 53.6 bushels per acre, has been undermined by a sharp reduction in harvested acreage. Farmers are projected to harvest 80.1 million acres, the smallest since 2019, resulting in a 4.292 billion bushel crop—down from earlier estimates. This reduction, coupled with upward revisions to domestic usage (crushing and exports), has tightened U.S. ending stocks to 290 million bushels, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 6.7%.

Globally, the picture is no less dire. Brazil and Argentina, the world's two largest soybean producers, have flooded the market with record outputs. Brazil's 2025/26 crop remains unchanged at 176 million metric tonnes (MMT), while Argentina's production has been revised upward to 50.9 MMT. These surpluses, combined with reduced U.S. exports and weak demand from the European Union, Iran, and Vietnam, have pushed global ending stocks to 124.9 MMT—just below trade expectations. The result? A supply glut that is pricing U.S. soybean meal out of key markets.

More at:

https://www.ainvest.com/news/soybean-futures-2025-26-structural-downtrend-confirmed-oversupply-weak-china-demand-bearish-technicals-2508/