General Discussion

Bernardo de La Paz

(60,320 posts)

47. Economic downturns lead to deflation, not inflation. What we have now is stagflation due to double supply shock

Mon Sep 22, 2025, 03:52 AM

Sep 2025

Supply shock 1: High tariff taxes lead to shortages of food, goods and parts for assembly.

Supply shock 2: Labour supply shock due to deportations and stay-at-homes.

The last big supply shock was the oil embargo of 1973 and to a lesser extent 1979. That lead to extended inflation and little or now growth: stagflation.

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Please prepare... I give it 6 months [View all] uponit7771 Sep 2025 OP

Compare: elleng Sep 2025 #1

Rail shipments decreased, air and truck shipments increased over same period. Dixiegrrrl Sep 2025 #6

Oh shit I_UndergroundPanther Sep 2025 #2

Saving Democracy sure didn't do it n/t BaronChocula Sep 2025 #9

We need a recession to get rid of MAGA. Roll on! Doodley Sep 2025 #3

that's my feeling LymphocyteLover Sep 2025 #11

sometimes I see markdowns on stuff that expires very soon Skittles Sep 2025 #28

we will be lucky if it's only a recession. nt Javaman Sep 2025 #31

In 5 years, we will call it the Greater Recession. roamer65 Sep 2025 #41

or to pay tribute to the orange asshole... Javaman Sep 2025 #42

Dumpcession. roamer65 Sep 2025 #43

Including myself drmeow Sep 2025 #4

I'm so sorry. hamsterjill Sep 2025 #7

Thanks. drmeow Sep 2025 #23

I was "downsized" shortly before 9/11. The entire job market clenched after that. BlueSpot Sep 2025 #44

Thanks drmeow Sep 2025 #49

Have some cash from selling a house. multigraincracker Sep 2025 #5

Given the rampant spending and the alienation of buyers for US treasuries... bhikkhu Sep 2025 #21

Money market fund tied to short term multigraincracker Sep 2025 #29

Economic downturns lead to deflation, not inflation. What we have now is stagflation due to double supply shock Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2025 #47

That depends entirely on the government's response bhikkhu Sep 2025 #48

Sell short on Disney RainCaster Sep 2025 #32

They Are ProfessorGAC Sep 2025 #35

Short duration US Tbills or Tbonds. roamer65 Sep 2025 #40

I rely on markdown meat. BidenRocks Sep 2025 #8

I found I can save a lot of money if I put my mind to it Susan Calvin Sep 2025 #12

is that the stuff you just have to eat right away? Skittles Sep 2025 #24

Use it or freeze it. BidenRocks Sep 2025 #25

You are not alone homegirl Sep 2025 #34

I bought a Breadman in the 90s. BidenRocks Sep 2025 #37

CASS freight index leanforward Sep 2025 #10

Chart back to 1990 ... cliffside Sep 2025 #27

Trump will be calling it fake news by 2am Sat........... Bengus81 Sep 2025 #13

He's already started the spin SCantiGOP Sep 2025 #19

SCOTUS could save the US economy and help Trump if they upheld the appeals court decision Bev54 Sep 2025 #14

For those younger than 55... 3825-87867 Sep 2025 #15

Actually those meals look more than ample, even today. markodochartaigh Sep 2025 #26

LOL. Is the US economy in a recession? ananda Sep 2025 #16

Trumponomics. Dr. T Sep 2025 #17

Mr. TACO and his band of misfits C Moon Sep 2025 #18

Yep, pedoprez is calling for his economy to kick in next year (link) uponit7771 Sep 2025 #30

...and rather than removing him Mr.Bee Sep 2025 #20

If you loved the supply chain disruptions in 2020-2021 Warpy Sep 2025 #22

But, but Trump said his tariffs will boost our economy. Gimpyknee Sep 2025 #33

A Golden Age. roamer65 Sep 2025 #39

House sales in desirable areas are slowing here in my area. 58Sunliner Sep 2025 #36

On the Great Recess-o-meter... roamer65 Sep 2025 #38

Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2025 #45

Global shipping would decline AND would represent an economic decline. Stupid tRump doing it the stupid way Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2025 #46