This peace deal will not last [View all]

[indusurb]

People are celebrating the Israeli-Palestinian peace deal today. Hostages returned, prisoners released, a ceasefire in place, humanitarian aid starting to come in. But the fact is, this peace deal will not last, I give it two years at best, but probably one year or less. Here's why.

First, this peace deal has holes big enough to drive the IDF through. Every step is predicated upon Israeli approval of what is going on. If they don't like what is happening with the disarmament process, the deal is done. Can't find all the bodies of buried hostages amid the bombed over rubble, the deal is done. Don't like the actions of the apolitical Palestinian committee set up to run day to day operations in Gaza, the deal is off. Everything is run through an Israeli vetting process, and if Bibi doesn't like it, everything can be blown up.

Second, and perhaps the biggest threat, is Netanyahu and his merry band of hard liners. Bibi is still facing a criminal trial. His hard line allies still want to fulfill their oft stated goal of completely getting rid of Palestinians by any possible means. This is a marriage made in hell, with Bibi at some point needing a political distraction and the hard liners more than willing to back him. What could go wrong.

Third, this agreement is being set up as a real estate developers wet dream.
"A Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East. Many thoughtful investment proposals and exciting development ideas have been crafted by well-meaning international groups, and will be considered to synthesize the security and governance frameworks to attract and facilitate these investments that will create jobs, opportunity, and hope for future Gaza."

Do you honestly think that the Palestinians will put up with their homes and country being given to the highest bidder to create a Palestinian version of Dubai, complete with a Trump resort? There will be little to no rebuilding of infrastructure that will be geared towards reestablishing the Palestinian community, but rather money and effort will be directed towards making another resort area for the rich. The Palestinians will only be allowed to live there as menial laborers.

Speaking of which, a provision states the Palestinians will be freely allowed to leave, or return to the Gaza Strip. My guess is that there's going to be a heavy emphasis on the leave part, not so much on the return. Trump and Bibi have floated multiple plans for ridding Gaza of Palestinians, from genocide to ethnic cleansing. I suspect this provision is more of the same, just in kinder, gentler terms.

Fourth, there is going to be little actual input from the Palestinian people. There is that apolitical(read favorable towards Israel) Palestinian committee that will oversee day to day operations, but even that is going to be overseen by a Board of Peace, headed by Trump and Tony Blair. The restablishment of a Palestinian government, run by a reconstituted(and Israeli approved) Palestinian Authority is set for some indeterminate future date. Until then, everything is going to be run through others, mainly US and Israeli hands.

This seems more like a pause in the horror, not an end to it. Yes hostages are being released, yes aid is (hopefully) entering Gaza. But as a long term solution, for long term peace, this falls far short of the mark. The only real solution is a two state solution, with a country for the Palestinian people, run by the Palestinian people. Until that happens the Palestinian people will continue to be the victims of Israeli hostility and now, apparently, foreign greed.

I've linked to the agreement, so you can see for yourself.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/world/middleeast/gaza-israel-cease-fire-plan-text.html